Andrew Scheer has one key task
Andrew Scheer really has just one key task as he prepares his party, and himself, for the next election in 2019: he has to provide a positive answer to a single question. When Canadians begin to tire of the Liberals and look around for a viable alternative, they’ll eye the Conservatives and ask themselves, “Could we live with these people as a government?” The answer has to be yes.
It’s not Scheer’s only duty, but it’s the main one. And it doesn’t have to be as difficult as some would make it. Canadian voters don’t wallow in the nitty- gritty of policy and power politics that so deeply absorbs the wonks of Ottawa. They barely even pay attention between elections (which is why midterm polls are so meaningless). Very few know much about Scheer now, and they probably won’t know much more two years from now, when he will presumably be on his third annual cross-country summer pilgrimage of barbecues and festivals, introducing himself to barely- interested audiences as the man who’d like to be their next prime minister. It doesn’t matter. Canadian governments are rarely defeated. Mostly they defeat themselves. People get tired of them and want a change. Sometimes they get tired of the leader, sometimes of the party. It might be the result of arrogance, ineptitude or general aimlessness; or it could be due to circumstances beyond the incumbents’ control. But it almost always happens.
People got tired of Pierre Trudeau every three or four years: they came within two seats of ousting him in 1972, succeeded in kicking him out in 1979, and finally gave the Tories an overwhelming majority in 1984 when Trudeau left behind a tired and tattered government to John Turner. They were fed up with Brian Mulroney by 1993, even though they weren’t much impressed by Jean Chrétien. They were similarly tepid about Stephen Harper in 2006, but had had enough of the Liberals to give him a try. In 2015, they were keen enough on a change from Harper to take a flyer on Justin Trudeau.
The rule holds in provincial votes as well. British Columbians don’t love John Horgan as much as they’d wearied of Christy Clark. It took four decades, but Albertans only turned to the NDP after the Progressive Conservatives finally wore out their welcome with one dumb move too many. Greg Selinger bumbled away his job as premier of Manitoba far more than Brian Pallister won it. And Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals are doing their level best to antagonize longsuffering Ontarians to the point that they finally overcome their lack of enthusiasm for the underwhelming opposition leaders the PCs keep putting up against them. What made Brad Wall’s recent decision to step down as premier so noteworthy was his determination to go before he was pushed; his sagacity in doing so might explain why, even as he quit, he remained the most popular premier in the country.
When the time comes that voters have had their fill of the Trudeau Liberals — and it will come eventually — Scheer has to have his party looking capable enough and adequately prepared to step in.
They don’t have to be the glitziest, shiniest, most exciting pack of politicians to ever grace the surface of the earth. Scheer doesn’t have to compete with Trudeau as the poster boy for magazine cov- ers aimed at underinformed readers in foreign countries. Nor does he have to top the Trudeau selfie count, which by then may have passed the lifetime burger count at McDonald’s. It might be an idea to ignore the glossier aspects of the Trudeau regime altogether, since voters will have formed their own opinions on it by then.
It is also not required that Scheer’s Conservatives amass a thick book of policy proposals for every issue. Policy obviously has an impact on elections, but the effect is just as likely to be negative as positive. People find it easy to ignore bright ideas; what they can’t forgive is a major flub. Stéphane Dion’s nonsensical “Green Shift” was a big reason voters gave Harper a second mandate. Michael Ignatieff ’s ongoing inability to define a reason to vote Liberal was a major contributor to his third. When Trudeau’s Liberals finally supplanted the Tories, it wasn’t due to policy: Trudeau’s list of promises was so overwhelming it proved impossible even to keep accurate count of them, much less to delve deeply into their details. It was because he successfully ran a cheery campaign that contrasted positively with Harper’s darkness.
Less than two years in, he’s already broken dozens of his firmest promises, yet seems largely undamaged, likely because Canadians haven’t yet lost the largely positive impression they formed during the 2015 campaign. A year before the vote, few saw him as solid prime ministerial material. A nice young man perhaps, with a boyish vigour and eagerness that could be touching if one didn’t look too deeply beneath the surface. But a man ready to run the country? Nah.
His ratings only changed when the situation did. He managed to present a more mature alternative at a time the Tories were turning off voters in droves. When Canadians asked themselves, “can we live with this guy for four years?” the answer was yes. And they may yet decide to live with him for another four in 2019.
But Scheer has to offer an alternative that ensures the decision isn’t automatic. He doesn’t need to bowl people over, he just has to not drive them away. Charisma is not a prerequisite in Canadian politics; competence, confidence and a common touch is plenty enough. If Scheer can display those qualities, Canadians may give him a chance to put them into effect on their behalf.