Midterm polls no bellwether
Success under Stephen Harper was based on party unity, moderation, inclusiveness and toughness. Unity is key and the new leader has included rivals from most wings of the party, including the man he pipped on the 13th ballot, Maxime Bernier, as the critic for science and economic development.
Bernier had sought the finance file but it seems that by handing him the consolation prize of another economic portfolio, honour has been satisfied and unity preserved.
There were few surprises in the shadow cabinet, with the exception of Kellie Leitch being excluded and Pierre Poilievre being handed the finance role.
The latter was once accused by Mulcair of displaying “smarmy arrogance” and there’s no doubt he rubs many people the wrong way.
But he and Scheer entered politics at the same time and he has matured into one of the Tories’ most effective performers in the House of Commons.
It seems very likely that Scheer and Poilievre will evolve a bon cop/ bad cop double act. As former British prime minister Clement Attlee once put it about his foreign secretary: “It’s a good maxim that if you have a good dog, you don’t bark yourself.”
Like Attlee, Scheer seems comfortable sharing the spotlight with more voluble colleagues — Bernier, Poilievre and other former rivals such as Erin O’Toole in foreign affairs and Lisa Raitt as deputy leader.
He may end up being accused of being too laconic and lacking in charisma — Winston Churchill levelled the charge at Attlee that he was a “sheep in sheep’s clothing”.
But Churchill lost to the dull Attlee in 1945, when voters sought change.
Scheer’s efforts to hold Trudeau to a minority in 2019 will be greatly aided if the NDP can revive itself. The party’s over-long leadership race will culminate in the next six weeks and it appears to be a two-horse race. New membership numbers released this week indicate either Jagmeet Singh or Charlie Angus will succeed Tom Mulcair as leader. Singh’s camp says he has signed up 47,000 of the 124,000 members the party says are eligible to vote. Angus’s team says his support is comparable, and he may have the advantage of broader late ballot support from members supporting other candidates as their first choice.
Either would provide the NDP with an energy it has been missing since Mulcair was ousted 16 months ago.
No- one should read too much into the midterm polls. Certainly the Liberals don’t — they are fresh off their own cabinet shuffle and Wednesday saw a number of chiefs of staff moved into new positions.
The lesson from California is that politics is a funny old game. If a monosyllabic Austrian cyborg can win the top job in American’s most populous state, there’s hope yet for Andrew Scheer.
(HOLDING) TRUDEAU TO A MINORITY IN 2019 WILL BE GREATLY AIDED IF THE NDP CAN REVIVE ITSELF.