Nike has a new playbook
BETWEEN A NEW APP AND SELLING COVETED LEBRON JAMES FOOTWEAR, THE ATHLETICS GIANT IS TAKING RETAIL RIGHT TO THE CONSUMER
FOCUS ON INNOVATION ... IS WHAT RETAILERS NEED.
Nike Inc. appears to be in investors’ good books again, after lagging both the broader market and primary rival Adidas AG for much of the past two years. But is the Swoosh moving back to the top of the cool rankings among consumers? It may not matter.
Nike shares climbed about two per cent since Wednesday when the sportswear giant hosted its first investor day since October 2015, closing at US$ 55.96 in New York on Friday.
Its chief executive, Mark Parker, stuck with the bullish tone that accompanied his forecast two years ago, which included a projection that sales would climb to US$ 50 billion by 2020. But that outlook no longer seems achievable, as the broader retail landscape is in the midst of dramatic change, and Nike faces increased competition from Adidas and others.
Parker reiterated that US$ 50 billion target, although he stated that it will be achieved within the next five years. That was accompanied by Nike’s forecast for high single- digit revenue growth and mid-teens earnings per share growth.
Despite a lot of doubt in the analyst community, there are plenty of reasons why Nike should be able to get there. Selling directly to consumers, and doing so more quickly than in the past, is part of the massive transformation Nike admits is needed.
Another way Nike is doing things differently surfaced on Wednesday when the company revealed that it will release highly coveted Player Edition basketball shoes worn by LeBron James to the public. The ‘ LeBron Watch’ campaign will give consumers access to the NBA star’s latest sneakers the minute he steps on court, and it will happen through Nike’s SNKRS app.
The strategy gives sneaker lovers and basketball fans more incentive to watch James, something that mir- rors the approach Nike is taking with its new Connected jerseys. With the company’s new apparel deal with the NBA kicking off for the 2017-2018 season, fans are being given access to news and highlights related to their favourite teams, as well as exclusive deals, when they buy jerseys.
In an over- crowded market for athletic apparel and footwear in particular, Nike has chosen to put more resources behind offering consumers a unique shopping experience. The repositioning of its distribution toward “differentiated retail” will mean more directly operated stores and e- commerce, a more narrow focus on partners such as Amazon. com Inc., and more of the brand-oriented storytelling experience Nike continues to win praise for.
In North America, Nike plans to increase the share of differentiated retail to 80 per cent from 40 per cent currently, in the next five years. The company thinks consumers want a more premium retail experience, and with more shoes from all brands hitting the discount rack, giving people a different way to shop should prove successful.
That means department stores, which typically offer less service or the brand experience Nike is trying to focus on, will likely be a focal point where the company pulls back. Foot Locker Inc. and other sneaker retailers will continue to be important partners, but Nike has made it clear that it will invest more in its own stores and e-commerce.
“We view Nike’s planned pullback on promotional channels as healthy for the industry in countering the domino discount impact on other brands,” said Matthew Boss, a retailing analyst at J.P. Morgan.
High levels of discounting in North America remain a big problem for Nike and others. So as the retailing landscape continues to shift amid major bankruptcies and store closures, volatility will remain elevated.
Camilo Lyon, a footwear and apparel analyst at Canaccord Genuity, noted that Nike is also grappling with a decelerating product portfolio, and not enough innovation behind it to offset the slowdown. Nonetheless, he is impressed by the tangible changes being made to address the dynamic retail landscape, as the company also adjusts how it speaks to consumers.
“The focus on innovation, speed, digital, international, and direct is exactly what brands and retailers need to embrace today to be successful tomorrow, and Nike’s commitment to executing on these initiatives was on full display,” Lyon said.
When elements of the consumer- oriented approach align, Lyon is confident Nike will be able to deliver its long-term growth target of high single-digit revenue growth and midteens EPS growth.
How long that takes is partly out of Nike’s control, and the challenges it faces will also force change at Adidas, Under Armour Inc. and other competitors.
It’s debatable how much the mainstream public cares about what’s cool in the fashion world, but Nike knows that it doesn’t look good when its products are sitting on shelves. That’s why the company is changing the way it permits retailers to discount its products.
In the past, Nike has allowed pre- determined discounts for a specific number of days. But as the sneaker market gets more flooded, retailers are forced to deal with excessive inventory levels. Nike is combating that by altering its minimum advertised pricing ( MAP) policy by permitting retailers to dictate the final sale price. However, the company still wants to control when promotions can be advertised, in an effort to maintain the brand’s image.
Nike shares are underperforming the S&P 500 so far in 2017, and the company’s Jordan Brand was recently overtaken by Adidas in market share, but does it really have a problem?
Everyone likes to criticize the leader, whether that’s NBA superstar James or U. S. e- commerce giant Amazon. com Inc. Nike is no different, as it continues to dominate the North American athletic footwear market with an estimated market share of 37 per cent.
With more than 60 per cent of Nike’s revenue generated in North America coming from footwear, shoes naturally are a focal point. But the company knows more growth will come from other markets, and Parker expects 75 per cent of its sales gains will be international. That means capitalizing on the popularity of Kobe Bryant in China, for example, where the retired NBA star is revered more than Michael Jordan, and that’s translated into huge sales for his own line of shoes and apparel.
Opportunities like these are plentiful for Nike, and although much of it requires successful execution, being one of the most recognizable brands on the planet is an advantage its competition doesn’t have. It might not matter all that much what Adidas is doing, because being the clear market leader, Nike has the luxury of time on its hands. However, amid the rapidly changing retail environment, the company can’t drag its feet for too long, because as Nike’s brand president Trevor Edwards put it: “Mediocre retail won’t survive.”