The bright side of Donald Trump

When I think of Donald Trump as President of the United States, there are two moments from his previous life that linger. The first is that guest appearance on WWE, now immortalized as an Internet GIF, during which he wrestled Vince McMahon to the ground and faux-punched the wrestling magnate about the head. The other is his long stint on The Apprentice, which always wrapped up with Trump telling some poor so-and-so, “You’re fired.” I thought when I first saw it that the reality-show trivialization of an all-too-real-life trauma — one that can devastate careers, individuals and their families — was appalling. I still think that.

When I watch Trump tough- talk on North Korea or trade deals, I see those awkwardly clenched fists hitting on McMahon’s pompadour. When he bully-tweets, I think of that stereotypical tough- businessman face he put on for The Apprentice. Some might see that as evidence of journalistic bias; I prefer to think of it as evi- dence of having a memory.

Of course, much of the criticism of Trump so far has been on style — though when you’re the leader of a superpower, style matters. Trump didn’t become “presidential” the day after he was elected, nor has he in the 12 months that have followed. He won’t in the next 36 either.

A year into his presidency, the Trump administration accomplished little of real substance. He claims to have signed more pieces of legislation than any other president save Harry Truman (who, by the way, is the last sitting U.S. leader to have approval ratings as low as Trump’s), but much of it has been minor stuff. Most of the significant initiatives — tax reform and replacing Obamacare, notably — have yet to become any kind of law.

Yet it’s also true that the gaffes and scandals, along with Trump’s love of executive orders, obscure the way the administration has changed the direction of U. S. policy. And when it comes to economic policy, not all of that change has been bad, at least in the broad strokes. So, to mark the one- year anniversary of his election victory, here’s a quick list of the notso-bad stuff Trump has done:

Corporate tax reform: Critics and economists can argue over the details of the reform proposal the administration has endorsed, but most should agree that the current system is hardly perfect. It’s true, as Republicans point out, that the U. S. has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the developed world — it maxes out at nearly 40 per cent. But in reality few corporations pay it, and the effective rate is in line with the average among G-7 countries. The House of Representatives’ proposed 20-percent rate would still amount to a cut, but it’s more in line with reality than the current statutory rate (loopholes, anyone?) and should both lower the cost of compliance and enhance U.S. businesses’ competitiveness.

But while rationalization of corporate tax makes theoretical sense, you have to wonder if this kind of “stimulus” is either needed now or likely to be effective. Corporate profits are strong, unemployment is low, and money is cheap. Also, given the structural economic challenges of demographics and technology, lower corporate taxes are unlikely to stimulate GDP growth to anything near the four or five per cent Trump has touted. The cut might just end up adding hundreds of billions to the U. S. debt, with little to show for it. Regulatory reform: Trump signed an executive order calling for the reduction of regulation in all branches of government. That’s not necessarily a good thing, and could have disastrous environmental and social consequences. For businesses, however, it signals that the administra- tion wants to rethink the post-recession regulatory regime. In financial services, it seems worthwhile to at least revisit regulations like DoddFrank and adapt them to current realities.

But the track record of U. S. financial deregulation suggests that it can have unintended consequences. Ronald Reagan cut rules and contributed to the savings-and-loan crisis of the 1980s, perhaps even setting the stage for the real estate crash of the 2000s. Shifting back to a pre2009 regulatory environment might be good for now, but not for the long run.

Reopening NAFTA: It might not be the worst deal of all time, as Trump has claimed, but the nearly quarter- century- old trade agreement is in need of updating. At least Trump has forced the parties to come to the table.

But the negotiations aren’t exactly going well, in large part because the U. S. has made demands it must know are deal-breakers for Canada and Mexico. Trump’s habitual threats to just pull out of NAFTA don’t help at all. And in general on trade, his protectionist impulses should concern everybody. Jerome Powell as Fed chair: Trump picked a moderate and a veteran Federal Reserve governor whose thinking seems generally in line with Janet Yellen’s, which should go some way toward ensuring continuity on monetary policy at a time when continuity is sorely needed. Powell also favours re-evaluation of post- recession financial regulation, but isn’t radical about it.

But the simplest and safest path to stability would have been to renew Yellen’s tenure. Switching chairs was a political move, raising questions about Fed independence down the road.

So, that’s pretty much it — apologies to Trump supporters for the above list being so short, and for pointing out that even his accomplishments have flaws. Trump being Trump, even the good stuff comes with a lot of buts.