POLL SHOWS BROWN LEADS.
Embattled ex-Tory leader fights for old job
Is it possible that Patrick Brown, who resigned as Ontario Progressive Conservative leader, then joined the race for his old job three weeks later, could now be winning the strange contest?
Internal polling f rom Brown’s campaign obtained by the National Post suggests he moved from second to first among the five candidates for the leadership last week, though with well under the 50 per cent needed to clinch victory on the first ballot.
The number of undecided voters also remained high. And there are still five days of campaigning left until the online vote starts, with the second of two debates to come next Wednesday.
As well, when the three days of poll results are combined, it shows a tight race among decided voters at the top between Brown and former provincial politician Christine Elliott. Doug Ford trails in third place, Caroline Mulroney is well behind him, and parents’ advocate Tanya Granic Allen lies in fifth, according to the survey.
Still, if the internal polling numbers are accurate, they point to a remarkable political comeback for Brown, who i s no l onger even a member of the Conservative caucus.
The member of provincial parliament from Barrie quit as leader Jan. 24 after CTV News reported that two women had accused him of sexual misconduct while he was a federal MP 10 years ago. He later was thrown out of the Tory caucus and removed as its candidate in his riding.
Brown has called the misconduct charges false and malicious, is suing CTV for libel and, just two hours before the deadline for entering the leadership a week ago, shocked the party by flinging his hat in the ring.
The Mainstreet Research poll contacted between 4,412 and 6,096 paid-up members of the party each day from Feb. 20 to 22. The survey’s margin of error was not immediately available, mean- ing the figures should be read with caution.
When the three days are totalled, Brown and Elliott are deadlocked at about 28 per cent of decided voters, followed by Ford at 22 per cent, Mulroney at just over 14 per cent and Granic Allen at less than seven per cent. Undecideds represented 18 per cent of all respondents.
Province- wide popular vote totals may not equal success in the election.
In a bid to ensure the winner has broad support, the party is assigning each riding 100 electoral votes, divided proportionately according to the total each candidate gets in that district.
So a wide margin in a few ridings — Brown, for instance, is believed to have a strong lead among south-Asian Canadians in some constituencies around Toronto — would not necessarily produce victory.
T he candidates spent their Sunday scattered around the province, seeking support.
Brown tweeted pictures of a visit to a Coptic Orthodox cathedral in Markham; Ford made campaign stops in Brantford and London; and Mulroney held a rally in Brampton, telling the crowd that she needed their vote.
Mulroney hinted t hat she could have some sort of policy coming soon.
“You deserve a vision, and you haven’t heard one yet from any leadership candidate,” Mulroney said in a video that was posted online. “I’m going to give you one, my vision for Ontario, my top five priorities as PC leader, and as premier.”
Mulroney added that she would also “unveil an idea that will prove I’m the only one who can bring serious change to Ontario.”
Mulroney has called on Brown to drop out of the leadership race, which stemmed from his resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations.
Elliott, however, has not called for Brown to quit the race.
“I think that the party has already made the decision that he can run as a leadership candidate, so, to me, that’s the end of it,” she said in an interview with the National Post on Sunday.
“I’m focused on my job, which is getting out our votes and being the successful candidate at the end of the race.”
And despite the crowded field, Elliott said she wasn’t pushing any sort of strategic voting angle.
“I’m standing as an independent candidate,” she said.
YOU DESERVE A VISION, AND YOU HAVEN’T HEARD ONE YET FROM ANY LEADERSHIP CANDIDATE.