PM cannot anger Trump as he did India

Arguably the greatest foreign policy challenge the Justin Trudeau- led government has faced is now developing Washington. And that is truly saying something, given that Trudeau and his staff recently fell so thoroughly flat on their faces in India and then proceeded to antagonize the world’s largest democracy by blaming the Indian government for it.

The challenge is a ramp up of protectionism by U. S. President Donald Trump. On Thursday, the president announced his desire to establish stiff import tariffs on steel and aluminum. Such trade matters normally fall under the jurisdiction of Congress, but the president can order such moves on matters of national security. Trump is therefore asserting that what he claims are unfair trading practices by foreign countries have undermined the U. S. steel and aluminum industries, which are essential for military production, and that only a strong American industrial base could support the U. S. military in time of war.

There’s some logic to that, but with holes. Countries that are hostile to America’s interests, and would seek to undermine its economy to gain military advantage, are not major exporters of steel and aluminum into the U. S. market. The largest exporter of both is ... Canada.

Details of Trump’s plan are so far sparse. It’s certainly possible it will be carefully tailored to avoid hurting Canada or any other close ally ( U. S. Defense Secretary James Mattis has already urged exemptions to ensure U.S. access to allied matériel). Barring such an exemption, Canada and other allies will have a problem.

Canada’s economy relies on access to the U. S. market. Both Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau pursued new trade deals, which helps, but nothing can replace the United States. This is not something that has escaped the federal government’s attention.

Indeed, one area where we have applauded this government’s efforts has been on managing our relationship with an unpredictable White House. Yes, Ottawa’s immature attempt to complicate NAFTA renegotiations with proposed chapters on pet Liberal causes was foolish and may have jeopardized the entire process. But Trudeau’s Liberals have worked hard to develop ties with important Congressional leaders and state houses across the U.S. We have friends south of the border, and they have been hearing from us. This is good.

Our confidence in this government’s ability to handle complicated tasks with friendly governments has been rather diminished in recent weeks, however. We do not casually dismiss the two years of concerted effort Trudeau has made to prepare Canada for a trade spat with America; those efforts will yield dividends. But the recent disastrous trip to India raises unavoidable questions about whether this government, particularly on matters of foreign policy, is simply exhausted and overwhelmed. Setting aside the prime minister’s over- the- top wardrobe, the handling of the Jaspal Atwal Affair — capital-A Affair, yes — has been astonishingly amateurish.

It’s bad enough that a convicted criminal with known anti- Indian separatist sympathies was invited to Canadian government events in India itself. ( No, really: that’s bad enough. Imagine the French government inviting some old FLQ terrorists to a reception for Trudeau at its embassy in Ottawa.) The Canadian government seems desperate to shift the blame for that disgrace onto the Indian government itself, asserting that there was some sort of conspiracy in play to embarrass Canada.

It’ s preposterous, of course, although if there was a shred of truth to it, the Liberals played right along and have embarrassed us all majestically. In any scenario, Canadian officials royally erred by inviting Atwal.

Even if it was a set up ( and it surely wasn’t), we certainly fell for it, and rather than admit it, investigate the causes and try to do better in the future, our government is slapping a single MP on the wrist and foisting the blame onto a generally friendly emerging superpower.

It’s amateur- hour stuff. The Indian government is signalling its displeasure, as it has every right to. It’s all rather appalling.

But it’s also, in the final analysis, relatively small potatoes. We intend no disrespect to Indians (we needn’t pour any more fuel on that fire!) but economic ties between Canada and India are nascent. Our economic ties with the U.S ., in contrast, underpin virtually our entire economy. Even if President Trump can be convinced to exempt Canada from his tariffs, there’s no reason to believe there won’t be more trade curveballs like this one coming our way. We need our leaders to be razor sharp. Our way of life literally depends on it.

It’s hard to look at the recent going- ons in Ottawa and feel much reassurance. Perhaps Trump’s tariff talk will serve as a wake- up call for a Liberal government showing growing signs of being old and tired before its time. We certainly hope so. It is clearly badly needed.

WE NEED OUR LEADERS TO BE RAZOR SHARP. OUR WAY OF LIFE LITERALLY DEPENDS ON IT.