Toyota proves mandating ZEVs wrong approach
Hybrids ahead of electric cars for cutting GHG
There was no kaboom. No eureka moment. Not even, truth be told, a token shout out. “Equality + Growth,” it seems, would have to do without a zero- emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate.
In the build up to the much- anticipated February 27 budget, all manner of ideas were being posited about how the federal government might encourage electric vehicle sales. Outright rebates, the exemption of EVs from the Goods and Services Tax and even upping the number of EVs the federal government buys were put forward as proposals to increase their sales. Electric Mobility Canada, a not- for- profit “dedicated exclusively to the promotion of electric mobility,” even suggested the creation of an Electric Vehicle Service Company ( EVCO) — run by its own self, of course — a sort of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., one presumes, for prospective EV owners not able to obtain car loans or leasing through traditional channels. Alas, nada.
Despite being absent from the budget, though, it would seem a nationwide ZEV strategy is right around the corner. Indeed, judging from the public pronouncements being made by some automakers — normally circumspect Mazda, even- more-guarded Toyota and others — they seem to be girding for some form of Quebec-like ZEV-mandating dictum from the federal government by the end of the year.
Certainly, it is completely uncharacteristic for Toyota Canada to be so blunt or so forceful in its public messaging. Yet, in the run- up to the recent Canadian International Auto Show in Toronto — and in formal presentations during the show — Toyota spokespeople were adamant in their contention there’s more to reducing greenhouse gases than simply setting a minimum target for ZEV sales.
Of course, creating a federal ZEV directive is politically expedient. Electric vehicles emit no carbon dioxide, so mandating their sales as the ideal way to reduce automobile greenhouse gases — 24 per cent of Canada’s total GHG emissions according to government statistics — is an easy 15- second sound bite. More complicated is explaining that, while mandating ZEVs is indeed effective at reducing GHG emissions, it may not be the most effective method of reducing those emissions. At least, that’s what Toyota thinks. And it brings a whole lot of carbon-reducing bona fides to the argument.
Let us not forget it’ s Toyota that started the automotive industry’ s green revolution, and it is Toyota, more than any automaker, that has contributed to the reduction of tailpipe emissions. According to Toyota Canada president and chief executive Larry Hutchinson, the company has now sold more than 11-million hybrids worldwide. Since each hy- brid represents about a 30 per cent reduction in GHG emissions compared with a purely gasoline- fuelled car, Hutchinson says, that’s like “having three- million zeroemissions vehicles in the market.”
By comparison, Tesla has sold about 250,000 ZEVs, Nissan a few more. In fact, if you took all the batterypowered electric vehicles and all the plug- in PHEVs ever manufactured by all the world’s automakers other than Toyota, they would not match the 90 million tonnes of carbon dioxide Hutchinson claims Toyota hybrids have eliminated since the first Prius was sold in Japan some 20 years ago.
The problem, Hutchinson says, is that setting only ZEV limits mandates specific technologies that may be inappropriate for some vehicles. For instance, while “trucks and SUVs now account for more than two- thirds of newvehicle sales in Canada,” Hutchinson says current batteryelectric technology isn’t appropriate for pickups.
“We’re a country of vast distances and, at some point, the weight and size of the batteries ( required to give a truck enough range) would become impractical.”
That’s why, Toyota says, some segments — and t r ucks and SUVs would seem to be the prime examples — are better served by hybrids, plug- in hybrids and even ( some time in the hopefully not- too- distant future) hydrogen fuel cells. Indeed, says Toyota’s former vice- president of sales and marketing, what the federal government needs to do is “embrace a multi-powertrain approach, so automakers can ensure Canadians adopt the appropriate clean- vehicle technology.”
Under Quebec’s rules, for instance, it doesn’t matter how much fuel a company’s trucks consume, as long as the automaker sells a longrange EV as an offset.
The second part of Hutchinson’s equation for any low carbon- emissions solution to work is acceptance and adoption.
“Internal combustion engines are popular because they meet people’s needs. They’re practical. They’re convenient. They’re affordable. Any new technology must deliver t hat same practicality, convenience and affordability.
“That’s why hybrids have been so successful in Canada,” Hutchinson says. “They are a seamless change from what people are accustomed to. Owners can adopt this new technology without changing any of their driving habits.”
It’s a barrier future automotive technologies must conquer. Says Hutchinson, “when it comes to consumer adoption of a new concept, the equation is extremely simple. The benefits must be greater than the resistance to change.”
So, yes, plug- in sales are increasing and their sales do need to be encouraged. There’s also no doubt that, moving forward, batterypowered electric vehicles will be large part of the solution to our emissions problem. But electric vehicles still account for less than one per cent of annual sales and represent less than 0.2 per cent of the 24 million or so passenger cars on Canadian roads. Reducing their impact on our environment requires a more comprehensive approach than just a simple ZEV mandate.
Finally, it is worth noting that, in closing his argument for just such an inclusive mandate, Hutchinson noted that, by 2050, the world’s t hird- l argest automaker hopes to reduce its vehicles’ CO2 emissions by some 90 per cent ( compared with 2010 levels). An ambitious goal, but as all the naysayers who pooh- poohed the Prius at its introduction 20 years ago can attest, one doubts Toyota at one’s peril. So, when Hutchinson says that “focusing solely on zeroemission vehicles will give us exactly that — zero,” it bears paying attention.