Trudeau less popular than Harper at 29-month mark

Angus Reid is the latest polling company to find Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity in precipitous decline in the wake of his widely criticized trip to India.

Trudeau’s net approval rating of minus-16 is well below Stephen Harper’s rating of minus-1 at a similar point in his tenure. Fiftysix per cent of respondents say they disapprove of Trudeau at his government’s 29- month mark, while 40 per cent say they approve. At Harper’s 28-month mark, 47 per cent disapproved while 46 per cent approved.

An accompanying report from Angus Reid points to the India trip, where the government was criticized for the presence of a convicted attempted murderer at a prime ministerial event, and a recent report from the ethics commissioner on Trudeau’s visit to the Aga Khan’s private i sl and as l i kely sources of the decline.

Angus Reid had to go back to Brian Mulroney in 1988 to find a prime minister with approval numbers as low as Trudeau’s at this point in their first term. Sixty-two per cent disapproved and 27 per cent approved of Mulroney at the 30-month mark of his first term.

Trudeau’s Liberals can take some solace from the fact that Mulroney went on to win another majority the following year, although with a reduced seat count, i n an election campaign centring on the North American Free Trade Agreement. Trudeau’s government is currently engaged in talks to renegotiate NAFTA with Donald Trump’s U. S. administration and Mexico.

The only prime minister in recent memory who enjoyed a positive net approval rating at this point in his tenure was Jean Chretien, with a plus-19 approval. Fifty- four per cent of respondents approved of Chretien in 1996.

It’s not all bad news for the Liberals. The Angus Reid poll found that young people are still solidly in Trudeau’s corner and that his electoral base is relatively strong.

“The party remains either in the lead or competitive in vote- rich urban centres, where a red surge pushed the Liberals to a 2015 majority,” the report reads.

Andrew Scheer ’ s Conservatives seem to gain the most from the Liberal declines, with 33 per cent of respondent saying they would vote for the Tories if a federal election were held tomorrow. Twenty- five per cent said they would cast a ballot for the Liberals and 16 per cent for the NDP.

Scheer is the only national leader with a positive net approval rating, although 28 per cent of respondents said they are still not sure how they feel about the Conservative leader.

Angus Reid found Canadians aren’t locked in to any of these choices though, with 64 per cent saying they are only somewhat certain or don’t really know which party they would support. In response to a question about which leader will make the best prime minister, 39 per cent said they were not sure.