Negotiation tactics

Re: Right-wing populists haunt PM’s dreams. John Ivison, June 9

Trading supply management for a deal on NAFTA is doomed to failure for three reasons.

Firstly, it is based on a misunderstanding of Trump’s goals. It is wrong to think of Trump as a politician pursuing policies that he believes, perhaps misguidedly, are in the best interests of the United States, and to base predictions of his behaviour on this model. Rather, Trump can best be thought of as the producer of a television reality show whose goal is to hold and expand his audience. His audience is defined by shared anger and resentment. Trump must continuously produce stories that fuel this anger and resentment if he is going to maintain his “ratings.”

Secondly, it disregards Trump’s documented history of reneging on contracts with weaker partners when it suits his purposes. Canada would not have the option to go to court since the Trump administration has made it clear that it intends to ignore the system of international trade rules that the U.S. itself established.

Thirdly, it ignores that Trump lives in a reality which he creates and recreates minute-to-minute to suit his needs. We may think that we have a deal; we may have the papers to prove it. If, however, in Trump’s “world of the moment” he sees no deal, then we have nothing.

Giving up supply management would be politically costly for whatever Canadian government chose to do so. To give it up as part of a deal with Trump would be to incur that cost for little or no return. Indeed, the value of the concession will evaporate the instant it is offered because Trump will immediately shift to his next set of demands to pay for what we thought had already been bought Alastair Moran, Brampton