Federal carbon tax would be costly to Saskatchewan economy: study

REGINA • A study commissioned by the Saskatchewan government says a federal carbon tax could potentially reduce the province’s gross domestic product by almost $16 billion between 2019 and the end of 2030.

The study says even the most conservative scenario shows a carbon tax of $50 per tonne would reduce provincial GDP by 2.43 per cent, or $1.8 billion annually.

The study used information provided by the provincial government and Statistics Canada data that was analyzed by a computer model developed by the University of Regina.

Environment Minister Dustin Duncan said the study shows a federal carbon tax could hobble growth and have little effect on emissions.

“The federal government has significantly underestimated the economic impact of its carbon tax and overestimated the expected greenhouse-gas reductions,” Duncan said Wednesday in a release. “This new and more thorough model indicates GDP reductions in the billions, which translates to less competitive industries in Saskatchewan and fewer jobs across the province.”

Duncan said the findings show why Saskatchewan has never supported the tax and is challenging it in court.

In April, Premier Scott Moe asked the Saskatchewan Court of Appeal to rule on whether imposing a carbon tax on his province would be unconstitutional.

The report’s findings differ from a federal analysis released in April that found GDP growth has remained strong in provinces that have put a price on greenhouse gas pollution. That federal report notes that B.C., Alberta, Quebec and Ontario led the country in economic growth last year.

MODEL INDICATES GDP REDUCTIONS IN THE BILLIONS, WHICH TRANSLATES TO LESS COMPETITIVE INDUSTRIES. — SASK. MINISTER DUSTIN DUNCAN