National Post

Trump tweets smash two pillars of economic policy.

Jabs at Fed, and currency accusation­s

- Andrew mAyedA SALehA mohSin And Analysis Bloomberg

President Donald Trump is showing that no economic-policy tradition is sacred in his pursuit of faster growth and lower trade deficits.

The U.S. president on Friday accused China and the euro area of manipulati­ng their currencies, and complained that a rising dollar is blunting America’s “competitiv­e edge.” In a reference to interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve, Trump added, “tightening now hurts all that we have done. Debt coming due & we are raising rates —Really?”

In the flurry of tweets, Trump smashed two pillars of U.S. economy policy over the past quarter-century. Presidents have traditiona­lly delegated the nation’s stance on the dollar to the Treasury secretary, who usually hews to the position that a strong dollar is good for the economy. Past presidents have also steered clear of commenting on U.S. monetary policy out of respect for the Fed’s independen­ce so the path of borrowing costs doesn’t move with the whims of politician­s.

The question is whether Trump’s remarks mark the beginning of a new era of greater interventi­on, one in which the president and his cabinet feel free to weigh in on economic issues that were traditiona­lly seen as outside the political domain.

In the meantime, currency traders may need to pay closer attention to the president’s Twitter feed. The U.S. dollar, which has strengthen­ed more than five per cent since the middle of April, fell after Trump’s remarks. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid as much as 0.74 per cent, its biggest intraday decline since March, before paring its loss to about 0.6 per cent.

“It breaks with the consistenc­y in the dollar messaging that we’ve had over the last 25 years, which has provided a strong backstop for market-determined exchange rates,” said Shaun Osborne at Scotiabank in Toronto. “At the very least, it injects uncertaint­y into the markets. If we see a consistent drumbeat on this from the president, it probably is going to weigh on the dollar.”

Trump’s dismissal of economic-policy tenets shifts attention during a week when he’s facing growing pressure over his relationsh­ip with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his lukewarm support for the finding by U.S. intelligen­ce agencies that Russia meddled in the 2016 election.

In the short term, the president’s jawboning could affect everything from his trade war with China to the G20 consensus on currencies.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin headed to Buenos Aires on Friday for two days of talks with his G20 counterpar­ts, where he will likely face questions about U.S. dollar policy. At their last meeting, G20 finance chiefs stuck to their commitment to avoid devaluing their currencies for competitiv­e purposes.

The Trump administra­tion’s own fiscal policy may be contributi­ng to the strong dollar and the nation’s growing trade deficit, said Mark Sobel, a former senior Treasury official who left earlier this year, after serving as U.S. executive-director at the Internatio­nal Monetary Fund. The IMF projects the U.S. trade deficit will widen as tax cuts and spending increases enacted this year stoke demand for imports.

The view that China and the euro area are manipulati­ng their currencies contradict­s the Treasury’s own currency report, which found in April that no major U.S. trade partner is gaming its exchange rate.

DEBT COMING DUE & WE ARE RAISING RATES —REALLY?

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