PIPELINE QUASHED AS CRUDE-BY-RAIL REACHES ALL-TIME HIGH.

This might not be the end of the Alberta NDP government — but you can see it from here.

Thursday’s court ruling against the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion doesn’t kill the project once and for all. But it does seem to kill once and for all any hope Premier Rachel Notley had of surviving the 2019 provincial election.

Notley had pinned the credibility of her government, its carbon tax and its climate leadership plan on getting the pipeline project under construction before the Alberta election expected in May. It was to be the biggest plank in her election platform. Now, you might as well bury the NDP’s chances in one of the trenches that was supposed to house Trans Mountain’s steel pipe.

Not that there’s much trench digging going on, come to think of it.

The project had become so delayed by environmental protests in British Columbia, both aggressive by protesters and passive by government, that pipe wasn’t scheduled to be in the ground until early next year. That schedule is now questionable, to say the least.

The decision from the Federal Court of Appeal was a shock, considering how the project had cleared 16 previous legal challenges. The court says the federal government did not fulfil it obligations to consult with Indigenous communities involved in the case. That’s a jaw-dropping conclusion considering how the government of Justin Trudeau has been all about showing respect for First Nations.

The court also described as an “unjustifiable failure” the fact the National Energy Board did not consider how increased tanker traffic would impact the waters and wildlife along the West Coast. Feel free to give your forehead a slap here. Save one for the NEB.

Environmentalists are celebrating. I imagine the United Conservative Party is doing a few cartwheels, too.

A stunned, nay, devastated Alberta government is staying silent for now.

The federal government is expected to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court. That could take 18 months. Or it could go back and reconsult with Indigenous people, not a speedy process either.

The court’s decision is also bad news for the federal government. It is about to get saddled with what could be a gigantic political white elephant stretching 1,200 km from Edmonton to the West Coast (the pipeline currently makes money and the expansion will make money but politically speaking the project is running out of capital).

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion could go ahead one day, just not now or for months to come.

Notley needed pipe in the ground by the spring of next year to coincide with the provincial election.

Without the pipeline project, the only thing being buried next spring just might be the NDP government.