BASICS OF NAFTA DEAL LIKELY TODAY: INSIDERS
It seems likely the U.S. and Canada will announce a trade agreement in principle on Friday, even if the details of it will have to be hammered out later, two American sources with knowledge of the talks said Thursday.
The countries only began negotiating in earnest on Wednesday, but have been working around the clock to try to meet a Friday deadline set by the White House for reaching a deal. In Washington, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said that work by officials has armed negotiating teams with the documents they need to start making some concrete calls.
An announcement is expected “with high-level areas of agreement” that would allow U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to file notice to Congress, said one person briefed on the discussions.
Then the two sides would continue to negotiate, said the person, who asked not to be named to protect their relationship with White House officials.
If it happens, the agreement announced Friday would “probably (be) just enough to say ‘We are not walking away’.”
Another source also briefed on some aspects of the negotiations said any statement would deal with the “parameters of an agreement in principle,” leaving the fine print to be worked out later. “My impression is that there is good progress and I’m hopeful there is a deal, but it’s not done,” said the person late Thursday afternoon.
Asked if the talks were revolving around the key questions of American access to the Canadian dairy market and the U.S. demand to scrap a dispute-resolution section prized by Canada, the source said “the issues that people thought would be challenging are the last ones to be negotiated.”
Freeland has been in meetings this week with Lighthizer. Officials worked late into the night Wednesday and again all day Thursday to find areas of common ground and compromise.
“This was another good, constructive, productive conversation with Ambassador Lighthizer and his team,” Freeland told reporters during a pause in Thursday’s talks. “We’ve moved into a very intense rhythm of the negotiations, where our officials are working hard preparing issues for some highlevel ministerial decisions.”
The Americans are pushing to get a deal by Friday to allow Mexico’s outgoing president to sign it before he leaves office Dec. 1, while providing Congress the 90day notice required before trade deals are signed.
But there is another requirement that the full text of agreements be made public 60 days in advance, which many experts say could allow for Canada to keep negotiating well into next month.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau held a conference call Thursday with premiers to discuss the negotiations. Freeland planned to be on the call, as did Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., David MacNaughton, and Dominic LeBlanc, intergovernmental affairs minister.
After the call, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said in a statement that the call was “productive” and that he hoped a deal would be reached soon.
This week’s new round of U.S.-Canada negotiations has generated hopeful signals from both camps that a deal could be struck by the end of the week. But difficult discussions about dairy and dispute settlement remain.
David Weins, vice-president of the Dairy Farmers of Canada, says his industry won’t accept any more concessions that allow the U.S. access to the Canadian market. Canada has opened its dairy market in its two previous major trade agreements, with the European Union and in a re-booted TransPacific Partnership. The latter deal offered 10 other Pacific Rim countries access to 3.25 per cent of Canada’s dairy market — and most analysts predict the U.S. will settle for nothing less in NAFTA.
“We’ve paid the price on two agreements and we don’t think it is right they should be coming back to us for further access,” Weins said in an interview.
Plus, the dairy industry doesn’t want Canada to compromise on potentially getting rid of its two-year-old Class 7 pricing agreement that has restricted U.S. exports of milk used to make dairy products, he said.
U.S. President Donald Trump added a layer of urgency to the negotiations Monday after announcing a side-deal with Mexico — with an ultimatum that Canada would have to join their pact by Friday or suffer the consequences of punishing tariffs on its auto sector.
On Wednesday, both he and Trudeau expressed optimism a new continental accord could be reached by Friday.
The Trudeau government is facing criticism from political rivals for remaining absent from the table during five weeks of summertime, bilateral negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico.
Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer said Thursday that the U.S.-Mexican deal has put Canada in a “very precarious position.”
“They’ve done it behind his back while he wasn’t even at the table,” Scheer told reporters in Winnipeg.
“Big issues being solved by Mexico and the United States with Canada being presented with a deal that has largely been concluded. So, that’s very concerning.”