Singh’s biggest booster may be Trudeau
The concept of “leader’s courtesy” may be about to make a comeback. It might sound as quaint and old-fashioned as monocles and top hats, but it is simply a form of parliamentary etiquette that means other parties don’t run candidates in byelections in which a rival party leader is running.
Green Leader Elizabeth May has already extended the courtesy to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in the upcoming byelection for the vacant seat of Burnaby South in British Columbia. Liberals say privately they are mulling the idea but no decision has been taken.
The idea has fallen into abeyance in some quarters but one Liberal pointed out the party did not run a candidate against Stephen Harper when he ran in a byelection as Canadian Alliance leader in Calgary Southwest in 2002; or against Stockwell Day when he was the Alliance leader in the Okanagan-Coquihalla in 2000; or when Progressive Conservative leader Joe Clark launched his parliamentary comeback in Nova Scotia’s Kings-Hants riding in the same year.
Somewhat spoiling their reputation as the boy scouts of Canadian politics, the Grits did run candidate Glen Pearson against May in a byelection in London, Ont., in 2006. (The Liberals subsequently pulled their candidate from running against the Green leader in a Nova Scotia seat in the 2008 election.)
But the Liberal party could make a legitimate case for not fielding a candidate in Burnaby — “in order to allow the full spectrum of political opinion to be represented in the People’s House …etc., etc…”
Forgive a disposition of disbelief at the sincerity of goodness in human nature, but close observation of politics over an extended number of years has confirmed the suspicion that its proponents are mostly sharks, circling in the water for traces of blood. Courtesy to political opponents is the last thing on anybody’s mind.
The fact that the Liberals are already lining up their excuses suggests they have no intention of seriously contesting the Burnaby South byelection.
If that is the case, it is a decision that is likely to have far-reaching consequences.
Singh has to win in Burnaby or his own caucus will turn on him. By all accounts, things are not going well on the ground. A CBC report showed how few people on the street even recognize him, given he has no connection to the riding other than the desire to be its elected representative.
The federal and provincial parties will pour resources into the riding won in 2015 by 500 or so votes by New Democrat Kennedy Stewart, who is now bidding to become Vancouver’s mayor.
But Singh is clearly in danger of losing the byelection and his leadership, if the Liberals run a strong, well-known local candidate.
Liberal party spokesman Braeden Caley said a number of community leaders have expressed interest but there is no nomination process in place yet, given the seat was only vacated in the past couple of days. No date has been set for the byelection.
The wider significance is clear in the national opinion polling. The Liberals have created a significant lead in recent weeks, after polls in early summer suggested they were neck-and-neck with the Conservatives. A break from the daily political water-torture of Parliament and the defeat of the hapless Wynne Liberals in Ontario have done wonders for Liberal support. Even if the bloom has come off Justin Trudeau’s rose, voters are not flocking to either opposition party.
Crucially for the Liberals, who won the last general election by dominating the left-of-centre vote, they need a weak NDP — and Singh appears to be delivering.
From praising the late Republican senator John McCain, to continuing to oppose the re-integration of former caucus member Erin Weir, Singh is facing challenges in unifying and electrifying New Democrats.His principle line of attack is that the Liberals have promised much but not delivered.
It may yet catch fire — signs of disillusionment with Trudeau’s leadership are apparent everywhere, not least in his own caucus where floor-crosser Leona Alleslev is only the most obvious manifestation of discontent.
But the most progressive Canadian prime minister in 50 years clearly does not fear Singh — except, perhaps, when it comes to emerging fashion brands.
It suits Trudeau’s purpose to keep New Democrat support to its rump in the mid-teens, allowing him to pursue his activist agenda to turn Canada into a more egalitarian country by government fiat.
Singh is key to that plan, which is why he is likely to be extended the courtesy of a clear run in the byelection by the Liberals. The irony is, for exactly the same reasons, the Conservatives will be running flat out to beat him.