Promise big, worry later

Quebecers went for change over fiscal prudence

The Economist magazine, writing on Monday’s Quebec election, noted for its international readership that, for the first time in most memories, independence was not on the ballot. “Separatism’s heady moment has come and gone,” it advised.

The absence of shaking fists and anti-federalist rhetoric may be among life’s great reliefs for other Canadians, but it could pose a problem for anyone outside the small world of Canadian political junkies, given that, for a generation and more, any article about Quebec had to be about its constant search for sovereignty (or sovereignty-association, or whatever other term the Parti Québécois could dream up to soften its quest), because that’s all anyone knew about the place.

Now that’s changed. The PQ did terribly in yesterday’s vote: it took only nine seats and just 17 per cent of the vote, which is the worst showing in the history of the party. On his first try in 1970, René Lévesque drew 23 per cent for his newborn PQ , winning seven seats, a seat total the party barely matched last night. Its leader, Jean-François Lisée, resigned during his concession speech, and failed to hold even his seat. Another, more strident separatist party did better, probably by eating into the PQ’s vote, but that party, Québec solidaire, only took 16 per cent of the electorate (their vote was efficient, however — they took 10 seats).

Overall, the separatist options took only a third of the vote. You never can be sure about these things, but there’s no indication sovereignty will re-emerge any time soon as a cause able to shake the national nerve.

So what’s to replace it? Based on Monday’s results, it sure won’t be the provincial economy. Premier Philippe Couillard’s government has done a splendid job on that front. Unemployment is low, growth is good, and the deficit has been so thoroughly tamed that Finance Minister Carlos Leitão forecast a fourth straight surplus this year. The provincial books are in such good shape that Leitão was able to withdraw $10 billion this year to pay off past loans.

That’s a lot of money, almost enough to pay the annual interest Ontario owes on the $320 billion mountain of borrowing left behind by the Liberal governments of Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne. It’s been a rare moment in Canadian history that Quebec could boast of besting Ontario in the fiscal stakes race, but this is one of them. And what’s the result? Leitão and Couillard get tossed out on their cans, without so much as a gold watch and a handshake.

It’s an important point, because it explains why so few governments pay attention to the warnings that rain down on their love of spending tax dollars, and borrowing more when those prove insufficient.

While Couillard was struggling for traction, in next-door New Brunswick Liberal Premier Brian Gallant was seeking re-election on a platform of more and more spending, despite warnings that his province is careening towards financial disaster. It has Canada’s lowest median household income, some of its highest taxes and a declining population as people seek better opportunities elsewhere.

Across the other Quebec border, Ontario Liberals abandoned pledges of spending restraint in favour of another big giveaway budget just months before the June election. They lost the election, but not because of the budget, which repeated the bottomless pit of spending pledges that had kept them in power for 15 years. They lost, as interim leader John Fraser conceded on the weekend, because they stopped listening to Ontarians and went wandering off in pursuit of their own leftist agenda rather than issues that concerned the voters.

Premier-designate François Legault will no doubt take notice. He probably already has. His victorious Coalition Avenir Québec is identified as a party of the centre-right, but followed a path throughout the campaign that sounded more liberal than the Liberals. He promised family allowances of up to $2,400, blatantly pleading “Please go and vote to get this $2,400 per child.” The supposedly pragmatic CAQ pledged to build 30 new seniors homes, free up 50,000 daycare spaces and create “innovation zones” to foster new technology and industries — a proposal that sounds an awful lot like a belief that governments, not entrepreneurs or free enterprise, are the “creators” of jobs. So free is Legault with spending pledges that even the PQ, which never met a handout it couldn’t embrace, wondered how he planned to pay for them all.

“We don’t have a calculator in place of our hearts, but we want to have a good management of public finances,” said Lisée.

No one can be quite sure which Legault will emerge as the dominant force now that he heads the first government in 48 years that isn’t either Liberal or PQ. Will it be the tight-fisted innovator who advocated for private health care and smaller government, and denounced Quebec’s annual haul of equalization billions as a disgrace that should be eliminated? Is there any of the old Legault left within the blatant opportunist of the campaign trail? Or might there even be a teensy remnant of the former PQ member who once campaigned for independence, but pledged his CAQ would steer clear of referendums?

The consensus view of Monday’s results was that voters wanted change, even if that meant ousting a government that so successfully put the province’s fiscal house in order. It’s a message to prospective leaders that financial responsibility is not necessarily a winning formula. It’s much easier to promise big, and worry later.