High stakes for Crown Prince,
As the mystery continues to swirl around missing Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi, what’s already become clear is how much is at stake for Saudi Arabia’s young leader and a foreign policy that’s testing the boundaries of his coveted relationship with the U.S.
Donald Trump’s presidency has emboldened Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to take risks abroad and clamp down on dissent at home, including the incarceration of fellow royals and millionaires at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh as well as the activists criticizing his leadership.
But the kingdom is now facing the kind of pressure from Washington rarely seen over its economic boycott of fellow U.S. ally Qatar or the war on Yemen that’s led to the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
For the first time since Prince Mohammed consolidated his power two years ago, senators from Trump’s own party threatened Riyadh with economic and political consequences.
Political support for Saudi Arabia in the U.S. Senate is “the lowest ever,” said Republican Sen. Bob Corker, the head of the Foreign Relations Committee. The controversy over Khashoggi threats to “drop it off a cliff,” he said.
One side of Prince Mohammed is the leader trying to transform an ultraconservative Islamic kingdom. The other is a 33-yearold who some western diplomats say is increasingly becoming a loose cannon and upending the country’s role as a predictable partner.
“The brazenness of this episode calls into question whether the decision-makers in Riyadh can adequately assess the consequences of their actions,” said Gregory Gause, a professor of international affairs and Saudi specialist at Texas A&M University. “The very minimal gain of the silencing of Jamal is so insignificant compared to the implications for relations with Turkey and even with the U.S.”
The unwavering support that Trump has extended to Prince Mohammed may not last if the prince doesn’t explain what happened to Khashoggi, said Kamran Bokhari, senior lecturer on Middle Eastern geopolitics at the University of Ottawa’s Professional Development Institute.
“If Khashoggi is not released and if this situation turns ugly and the rumours of his death are true, it will really undermine the ability of Washington to continue doing business with Riyadh,” Bokhari said.
Prince Mohammed has charted a more aggressive foreign policy, cutting ties with Canada after Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland called on Aug. 2 for Saudi authorities to release a human rights activist.