IN WITH THE TALIBAN
BEHIND THE SCENES, RUSSIA HAS REGAINED A COMPLICATED STATUS AS AN AFGHAN POWER BROKER
ISIS IS GROWING FOR THE MOST PART THANKS TO THE AMERICAN SPECIAL SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN. THEY ARE CREATING A MESS ACROSS CENTRAL ASIA AND THIS PUTS A HUGE AMOUNT OF PRESSURE ON RUSSIA.
— FRANTZ KLINTSEVICH
Russia has been cultivating ties with the Taliban to increase its influence in Afghanistan three decades after Moscow’s humiliating defeat there helped hasten the Soviet Union’s collapse.
Russian engagement with the militants drew attention, and some flak, when the Kremlin invited Taliban representatives to Moscow for a meeting in September. That invitation was rescinded — at least temporarily — after the Afghan government objected, saying it must take the lead in any talks.
But the diplomatic kerfuffle laid bare the Kremlin’s effort to reassert itself in Afghanistan, an initiative that has included discreet contacts with Taliban leaders and a military buildup along the country’s northern edge.
Moscow has also sought to reclaim its role as regional power broker, convening secret discussions with the United States, Iran, Pakistan, India and China and seeking to ensure any finale to the conflict suits Russian interests.
It is part of a strategy, analysts said, to protect Russia’s southern flank from the Islamic State’s emergence in Central Asia and hedge against the possibility of an abrupt U.S. exit from Afghanistan after 17 years of war.
The Russian gambit is a relatively modest political investment that could yet yield outsized dividends as Moscow seeks to prove its global heft. “Supporting the Taliban in a small way is an insurance policy for the future,” said Artemy Kalinovsky, a scholar of Central Asian history at the University of Amsterdam.
Gen. John Nicholson Jr., who recently stepped down as commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, said Moscow is trying to “drive a wedge” between the United States and its coalition partners.
“We know that Russia is attempting to undercut our military gains and years of military progress in Afghanistan and make partners question Afghanistan’s stability,” he said in a recent interview.
As Russia has increased its profile, there have been allegations, unsubstantiated but persistent, from Nicholson and other senior U.S. officials that the Kremlin has provided small arms to the Taliban, or at least tolerated a supply of Russian weapons to the militants from Central Asia. Russia has denied the accusations.
U.S. officials doubt that Moscow is trying to help secure victory for the militants, the successors of the mujahedeen guerrillas who battled the Soviet troops in the 1980s. Instead, the officials said Russia is trying to strengthen its own position without provoking the United States — and a few crates of Kalashnikovs can facilitate meetings and establish relationships without altering the battlefield.
Russia’s return comes as the Trump administration struggles to reverse a prolonged Taliban resurgence and push the militants toward a deal. While a more expansive military mission has helped Afghan forces defend populated areas, vast swaths of the country remain no-go zones.
In August, militants temporarily overran a provincial capital, underscoring the fragility of the Afghan government’s grip on the country.
Against that backdrop, U.S. officials fear that the Kremlin’s intervention may complicate if not damage the effort to foster peace talks by giving the militants new avenues of support, thus reducing their incentive to cut a deal.
“The Taliban needs to feel the Russian pressure to negotiate rather than feeling emboldened by another patron,” said a senior Trump administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive policy. “That is the concern.”
Russia’s inroads with the Taliban represent a striking turnaround 30 years after the Soviet army was beaten by the Afghan guerrilla force.
The 1979-1989 war, which aimed to prop up an allied Communist government, ravaged Afghanistan, killing an estimated one million Afghans and destroying the country’s infrastructure and farm sector. It also exacted a heavy toll on the Soviets, draining Moscow’s coffers and leaving at least 15,000 of their soldiers dead, many of them killed by an Islamist force armed covertly by the United States.
Soviet veterans, or “Afgantsy” as they are known, were seldom given a hero’s welcome when they returned home. Instead, they were seen as an embarrassment, their lack of battlefield victory symbolizing disillusionment with the Soviet state.
When the United States and other NATO nations moved into Afghanistan after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Moscow threw its support behind the coalition as it battled al-Qaida and its Taliban hosts.
But Russia grew frustrated with the U.S. mission as the years wore on. The United States seemed to be repeating all of the Soviet mistakes, such as losing local support through errant airstrikes. And it was making new ones of its own.
Officials in Moscow were also concerned that the United States would set up permanent bases in their backyard.