RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
WHAT'S HAPPENED, WHAT IT MEANS, WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN NEXT
In the words of Ukrainebased correspondent Nolan Peterson, a Sunday incident in the waters off Crimea had sparked “the most dangerous moment I’ve seen in Ukraine in years.”
The incident in question was a collision between a Russian patrol boat and a Ukrainian tugboat.
Here’s a quick guide to why it could portend a new war on European soil.
WHAT HAPPENED?:
On Sunday, three small Ukrainian naval vessels, a tugboat and two gunboats, were sailing from the western Ukrainian port of Odessa to the country’s eastern port of Mariupol. The only path between the two is through the Kerch Strait, a narrow body of water between Russia and Crimea. While in the Kerch Strait, the three vessels were intercepted, fired upon and detained by Russian naval vessels. The tugboat, the Yani Kapu, was rammed by a Russian patrol vessel, injuring several sailors. Video of the crash was posted by Ukraine’s Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov. Ostensibly taken from inside one of the Russian vessels, it shows the ship bearing down on the tugboat as an unseen commander shouts profanity-laced threats such as “f------ crush him from the right!” A heavily edited video posted by the pro-Russian news site Sputnik, meanwhile, shows the Ukrainian vessels being peacefully escorted. The three Ukrainian vessels and their crews are now detained in Russian-annexed Crimea, and Ukrainian officials are calling on the detained personnel to be treated as prisoners of war.
WHY IS RUSSIA INTERCEPTING UKRAINIAN NAVAL VESSELS?
Until recently, Ukraine never had any problems navigating the Kerch Strait, its only link with the Sea of Azov, and is thus the choke point for a significant portion of Ukraine’s marine trade. Under a 2003 treaty, the strait is considered shared territorial waters between Russia and Ukraine. That all changed in May, when Russia opened the “Crimean Bridge,” a $4-billion, 18-kilometre span connecting the Russian mainland with Crimea. The action solidified Russia’s claim to a peninsula still seen by many countries as a part of Ukraine illegally occupied by the Russian Federation. The bridge’s opening also marked a notable step-up in Russia’s military presence in the Sea of Azov, purportedly to protect the bridge from hostile Ukrainian elements. The attack on the trio of Ukrainian vessels is only the latest in a campaign that has seen Russia search hundreds of cargo vessels destined for ports along Ukraine’s eastern coast. Following Sunday’s incident, the strait is now under heavy guard from Russian forces and security services. A tanker now blocks the only passageway under the Crimean Bridge and the skies over the Kerch Strait are coursing with patrolling Su-25 jet fighters. An analysis by the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think-tank, characterized Russian actions as “creeping annexation” and an attempt to “cut off Ukraine’s eastern ports.”
WHY IS THIS ANY DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS UKRAINERUSSIA FIGHTING?
In 2014, after mass protests and violent street clashes forced pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych from office, Russia responded by annexing the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, ostensibly to protect the area’s Russian speakers. For the last four and half years, Ukraine has also been at war with proRussian separatists in the Donbass, a region along the country’s eastern border. With more than 10,000 killed to date, it’s the bloodiest European war since the flurry of conflicts sparked by the early 1990s breakup of Yugoslavia. Russia has been actively supporting and supplying the Donbass separatists, even sending in elite Russian soldiers disguised as impromptu local militias. What makes Sunday’s incident different is that it constitutes a direct confrontation between Ukrainian and Russian forces. Unlike another Russian neighbour, Georgia, Ukraine has thus far been spared open and direct conflict with the Russian Federation. This also marks a new theatre for the conflict: Plenty of Russian bullets and artillery shells have been fired into Ukraine from the Donbass, but only now are shots being fired at sea.
WHAT IS UKRAINE SAYING?
A statement from Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs characterized the incident as an expansion of Russian aggression to “the sea.” “Kremlin’s criminal regime has today once again demonstrated that it won’t stop its aggressive policy and is ready for any acts of aggression against the Ukrainian state,” it read. In response, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko initially sought approval to impose 60 days of martial law throughout the country. Pitched as a way to better mobilize Ukraine against Russian aggression, the measure was nevertheless fiercely criticized by some opposition lawmakers as well as three former Ukrainian presidents. The chief fear was that martial law will endanger the country’s March 2019 presidential elections. Poroshenko later dropped his proposal to 30 days — which Parliament approved — and has assured foreign leaders that it would have no effect on the country’s “democratic institutions.”
WHAT IS RUSSIA SAYING?
The consistent line coming out of the Kremlin and Russian state media is that Russia did nothing wrong and is acting purely in self-defence against Ukrainian “provocation.” Sputnik, a pro-Russian media outlet, characterized the Kerch Strait as “Russian territorial waters” and claimed the Ukrainian vessels were only fired upon after ignoring Russian entreaties to leave the area. At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Russian representative Dmitry Polyanskiy claimed that Ukraine had deliberately sent naval vessels to run the Kerch Strait to spark an incident with Russia and score domestic political points. “Kyiv has used the clash to justify declaring martial law — something Moscow says only benefits Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko ahead of the March elections,” wrote RT, another English-language proRussian outlet.
WHAT’S THE REST OF THE WORLD DOING?
Ukraine is not a NATO member, meaning any direct Russian attack would not automatically spur a response from NATO members. Nevertheless, a statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated the group’s “full support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.” A pro-Ukrainian position was also reaffirmed by the United States, the U.K., Canada, Poland, France, Germany and the E.U. as a whole. However, many of the usual cards to curb this kind of thing have already been played. Russia is already under heavy Western sanctions for a string of condemned actions ranging from its annexation of Crimea to the assassination of dissidents on British soil (some of the sanctioned companies include contractors that built the Crimean Bridge). Ukraine has also been receiving significant military and economic aid from Western allies. Last year, both the United States and Canada approved direct transfers of lethal weaponry to the Ukrainian military — with U.S. military aid for Ukraine topping $200 million in 2018 alone. Sunday’s incident has thus yielded the familiar spectre of an international community largely united in condemning Russia, but this has been countered by the also familiar spectre of a Russia that doesn’t care. On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov seemed unconcerned that more sanctions would be forthcoming from the incident, saying “this has not been a matter of concern for us for long already.”