THE HITCH WITH MITCH
Afew minutes after Auston Matthews signed a five-year extension to become the highest-paid player with the Toronto Maple Leafs, a member of Mitch Marner’s camp was on the phone with Postmedia News.
You could practically hear him grinning from ear to ear.
“Great contract,” he gushed. “I think it’s the best contract in the league. Just fantastic. Please tell me one contract that’s better.”
Well, hold that thought for a second. Or rather, hold it for the next five months.
With two-thirds of Toronto’s Big Three signed — William Nylander inked a six-year deal worth US$45 million in December — the focus now turns to Marner. And if anyone thinks Matthews’ $11.634-million cap hit is “the best contract in the league,” just wait until Marner negotiates his next deal.
Based on his current stats, Marner’s contract could be even better. It also has the potential to be far more contentious.
Maybe that was why Leafs GM Kyle Dubas wanted to get Matthews done and out of the way. But in doing so, the team might have painted themselves into a financial corner that Marner has every reason to exploit.
That was always the danger in signing Matthews before Marner. By doing so, you set the bar for what the next guy should be paid. But like the $11-million cap hit that John Tavares received last summer, it’s not necessarily a high bar.
The Leafs will try to get Marner signed to a number far below what Matthews and Tavares are making. But now that Marner is on pace for 100 points and shown an ability to kill penalties and match up against the other teams’ top lines, there’s a growing argument to be made that he should expect to be paid the same — or even more than those other two.
Marner’s camp has repeatedly said it will not negotiate until after the season, presumably because they want to avoid any distraction. And for good reason. This negotiation, which tilts in Marner’s favour with each passing game, has the potential of becoming Nylander 2.0.
Here’s what we know: there’s a seismic gap between what the Leafs think of Marner and what the player thinks of himself.
To the Leafs, Marner is an $8- to $9-million player. He’s No. 2 or No. 3 on the pecking order, somewhere above Nylander’s $6.9-million cap, but far below the annual average of Matthews’ and Tavares’ deals.
From the perspective of Marner’s camp, there is no difference between him, Matthews and Tavares. And unlike Nylander, who signed a speculative deal based on future potential, Marner actually has the stats to back it up.
After 52 games, it’s Marner who is once again leading the team in scoring with 63 points. He ranked ninth in the league in assists and points (tied with the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl) heading into Tuesday’s play, and is seventh in even-strength points. Going back to the start of last year, he has scored 132 points in 134 games. During that same span, Matthews has 109 points in 100 games.
On many nights, it’s Marner — not Tavares — who is driving the top line.
And to those who subscribe to the notion that Matthews and Tavares should automatically earn more than Marner or Nylander because of the position they play, keep in mind that Alex Ovechkin, Johnny Gaudreau, Nikita Kucherov, Blake Wheeler, Taylor Hall and Artemi Panarin are the highest-paid players on their teams. And they don’t play centre.
Marner could add his name to that list. The same goes for Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen, Carolina’s Sebastian Aho and Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine, who are just a sampling of some of the players coming off their entry-level contracts this season.
Expect Marner to ask for the same deal that Matthews received. That includes a five-year term, which several agents have said is becoming the new norm for restricted free agents who want to enter unrestricted free agency at an earlier age to capitalize on their prime-earning years.
In other words, it won’t be long before Matthews’ cap hit is eclipsed.
Rantanen, who is on pace for 119 points after scoring 84 points last year, could now ask for more. The same goes for Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine, who is averaging .50 goals per game compared to Matthews’ .53. And Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point, who is ranked among the top 10 in goals and points this season.
After all, this isn’t the same as Connor McDavid signing an eight-year contract worth $100-million. At the time, McDavid had won a scoring title and league MVP. At 20 years old, he was already regarded as the best player in the game.
Matthews isn’t there yet. Though he might be one of the best players in the league, he’s not yet The Best. He’s certainly not head-andshoulders better than Marner.
And you can bet Marner’s next contract is going to reflect that.