Coalition looms in Israel
SMART MONEY SAYS THERE WILL BE A REBOUND ELECTION IN ABOUT A YEAR
Roughly halfway through the campaign for Israeli elections on April 9, the left has collapsed, making it a contest between the right and an emerging centrist bloc.
A dominant force in the political and social life of the fledgling state, the socialist Labour Party, once led by David Ben-Gurion, is polling a miserable six seats out of 120 in the Knesset, just scraping the four-seat threshold.
Theories as to why Labour is in a free fall abound, and tend to focus on weak leadership. But, the leaders reflect a rudderless, gutted movement that has lost its way. Israelis have transformed from collectivists, economically and of necessity, to free marketeers. It is a highly individualistic society chafing at the degree of conformity and control that was considered necessary in the early years of the state.
Accordingly, the power of unions, which were the core DNA of the Labour movement, has diminished considerably. As in any Western country, the population is motivated to improve its lives, but economic issues are always overtaken by security concerns. And, there’s the rub.
There is no daylight between the security policies of Labour and the centrist and right-wing parties; a little more talk about finding new ways to engage the Palestinians, perhaps, but nothing significant. Which leaves the party with very little to say other than remind us of its glorious past.
The marquee Labour candidates in the election runup are quite outstanding and are committed public servants, but are faced with the enormous challenge of making the party relevant again. Polling neck and neck with the Meretz party, considered to be the furthest left on the Israeli political spectrum, once-mighty Labour has become yet another special interest splinter party.
Eclipsing Labour in the polls and attracting considerable attention is the Israel Resilience Party, newly formed and led by former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff Benny Gantz (2011-15), flanked by Moshe Ya’alon, also a former IDF chief and minister of defence under Benjamin Netanyahu from 2013-16. Among the impressive list of candidates are several highly regarded Likudniks; including Zvi Hauser, a lawyer who served as Netanyahu’s cabinet secretary from 2009-13.
This lineup is not a trifling threat, which is why Likud has wound up its attack dogs to malign the Israel Resilience Party as a bunch of “left-wingers,” the dirtiest word in their lexicon.
Such dog whistling may be well-received by the hard-baked Likud base but it is much less so by Israelis searching for a viable option to Netanyahu’s leadership. Besieged by the ongoing corruption investigations that may well result in him being indicted on one or more counts of fraud, bribery and breach of trust, for many Israelis the prospect of a few more years of PM Netanyahu is a highly divisive proposition.
And then, there’s the fatigue factor. Many are just tired of Bibi, who has been prime minister since 2009. Enter Benny Gantz. The worst you hear is that he is milquetoast and bereft of ideas, which is a difficult criticism to sustain in light of his impressive resume and the quality of those who have signed on to his party. Then, there was his maiden political speech, televised live two weeks ago. It was brilliantly scripted, choreographed and well-received by a public desperate for an alternative. The main and somewhat justified criticism was that Gantz’s inventory of platitudes sets the bar impossibly high, but that misses the point.
His is as much a campaign of emotion as substance, perhaps more so. His campaign slogan, “Israel before all else,” says it all. His message: That he is clean, incorruptible, hard-working and utterly devoted to the well-being of the state. Without mentioning Netanyahu by name, Gantz slammed him in a beautifully crafted speech for eroding the selfless, altruistic values that most would like to associate with political leaders.
Gantz represents New. Fresh. Integrity. Experience.
Ultimately, any Israeli government is a coalition of negotiated interests, and that’s the real kicker. Yair Lapid, leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, has so alienated the ultra-orthodox parties (currently on track to hold approximately 13 seats) that they have vowed publicly to never sit in a government with him. That represents a fatal handicap for Israel Resilience, should it be in a position to have first crack at forming a coalition. They need Lapid’s numbers.
The religious ire focused on Lapid is because of his unwavering support for requiring all ultra-orthodox young men to either serve in the army or a form of national service. Currently, if they are studying full-time in a religious institution this cohort of young men is excluded from all forms of service, an equality and economic issue that is deeply resented by the vast majority of Israelis. This reality has long been a flashpoint and is becoming increasingly divisive as the percentage of ultra-orthodox in the general population balloons.
It’s a time bomb that Netanyahu has stickhandled reasonably effectively to date, deftly ragging the puck. Whether Israel Resilience would manage the issue any differently remains to be seen.
What is clear, however, is that the economic and social strain of disproportionate religious power in this society is perilously close to a breaking point, making it imperative for whoever governs in the coming years to negotiate a sustainable way forward.
Preparedness to enter a coalition and on which terms is a critical undercurrent in Israeli elections and will be uppermost in the minds of voters, undermining the possibility that Resilience will lead. As much as there is a strong cross-partisan desire to end the ultraorthodox chokehold on the balance of power in coalition negotiations, the likelihood is that Netanyahu’s Likud will form the next government, ironically, because of the support of the religious parties.
Given this outcome, and the real possibility that Netanyahu will be indicted in the coming months, the smart money is betting that Israel will be facing a rebound national election within a year or so; and that may well be the plebiscite of real change.