Did ISIL leader’s death make us safer?
Half a century ago, when John Kennedy was president, the U. S. government grew so angry at Fidel Castro that it set in place a plan to assassinate him. The plan failed but became public and outraged many Americans. It was soon decided that in future America would not use assassination as a tool of foreign policy, whether of a Cuban dictator or anyone else.
But that conviction has long since been forgotten or erased. President Barack Obama authorized the elimination of Osama bin Laden, the architect of the 9/ 11 atrocity. And this week we learned that President Donald Trump commanded the termination of another enemy, Abu Bakr al-baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS).
Pursued by U. S. Special Forces who found him in northern Syria, Baghdadi apparently killed himself and his accompanying children by exploding a suicide vest. “Do not be happy America,” the Islamic State’s audio message warned after his death. “Don’t you see, America, that the ( Islamic) State is now on the threshold of Europe and Central Africa?” It pledged support for the new leader and the enduring ISIL mission — the spread of Islamic law.
Baghdadi rose from obscurity as a lowly paid teacher of Koran recitation to a position where he could confidently declare himself “caliph” of all Muslims. His followers burned to the ground whole villages and took thousands of slaves ( some of whom Baghdadi raped). They imposed Shariah law wherever they could, proclaiming it as the only law of Allah. They covered their expenses through extortion, theft and selling slaves.
ISIL held huge areas of Iraq and Syria from 2014 to 2017, until those areas were taken over by U. S.- led coalition forces. In the past year or so the land controlled by ISIL was reduced from roughly the size of Britain to the size of New York’s Central Park.
Nevertheless, the long-distance reach of Baghdadi forces compensated for their failures in Europe and the Middle East. Thousands of young men from across the planet ( and sometimes their girlfriends) dreamt of joining ISIL, and many managed it.
In his 10 years as caliph, Baghdadi created a network of jihadi organizations stretching around the world, despite the killing or capture of 34 of its top 42 leaders. He had a talent for inspiring like- minded ( though often distant) terrorists to conduct attacks in their own countries. The terrorists may not even have been known to Baghdadi. They could be freelance operators simply claiming ISIL connections. Intelligence analysts have said that we should expect a major attack as a demonstration of the group’s tenacity and its thirst for revenge.
Michael Pregent, a former intelligence adviser to Gen. David Petraeus, said Baghdadi’s career depended on inspiration. “Baghdadi built a brand that enables anyone to jump aboard the ISIS bandwagon, claim allegiance to it, and stage an attack, maybe not now, but next year,” he said. “That powerful brand is still alive and well.” ISIL has claimed that Baghdadi’s successor is already appointed. His name is given as Abu Ibrahim al-hashemi al- Quraishi.
Everyone connected to Baghdadi was caught by the shadow of his reputation. Two days after his death, Turkish troops seized a woman they identified as his sister. “We hope to gather a trove of intelligence from Baghdadi’s sister on the inner workings of ISIS,” a Turkish official said. Her husband and her daughter-in-law were also being held for interrogation.
Enemies of ISIL have had some earlier successes. About 10,000 alleged ISIL members are now imprisoned in 20 camps, guarded by the Syrian Democratic Forces. There are said to be among them 2,000 hard- core foreign fighters from more than 40 countries. Thousands arrived from Russia. Other camps hold some 70,000 women and children from over 60 countries, most said to be family members of ISIL fighters. Matthew Levitt, a Washington Institute expert, says he’s concerned that the camps will breed “a new generation of violent extremists.”
Donald Trump framed his TV report to the public as the political equivalent of a victory lap, perhaps because he’s dealing with a possible impeachment. In a Sunday talk he said the capture or killing of Baghdadi was his top national-security priority. He said the Baghdadi raid would not be the last; the U. S. is already tracking his successors.
“Baghdadi’s demise demonstrates America’s relentless pursuit of terrorist leaders, and our commitment to the enduring and total defeat of ISIS,” Trump went on. “The reach of America is long. Terrorists who oppress and murder innocent people should never sleep soundly, knowing that we will completely destroy them.”
He observed the final stages of the raid from the White House, noting that it was so well filmed that it was like watching a movie. They “accomplished their mission in grand style,” he said. “This raid was impeccable.”
He reported that Baghdadi began “whimpering and crying and screaming” when he realized he was caught. Trump went even farther: “The thug who tried so hard to intimidate others spent his last moments in utter fear. He died like a dog. He died like a coward.”
It was a triumphant speech for Trump, focused on one sentence: “The world is now a much safer place,” with Baghdadi gone. But ISIL has weathered many setbacks in the past, and may again find a way to recover.
BAGHDADI BUILT A BRAND THAT ENABLES ANYONE TO JUMP ABOARD THE ISIS BANDWAGON.