Sask., Alberta reveal best- and worst-case COVID-19 scenarios

Hospitals brace for thousands of admissions

• In the worst- case scenarios for the COVID- 19 pandemic, Saskatchewan could see as many as 8,370 deaths, and Alberta as many as 6,600 deaths, according to new modelling projections rolled out by the western provinces on Wednesday.

Both provinces are scrambling to increase their capacity in hospital beds and ventilators to prepare for the potential that thousands of people could fall ill and require hospitalization.

In the Wednesday briefings, at the lower- end of the projections, 400 people could die in Alberta, and 3,075 could die in Saskatchewan.

The projections for the two provinces are based on very different assumptions. Alberta used homegrown data about transmission rates for its modelling. Saskatchewan is applying information from other jurisdictions to create its scenarios.

Even then, caution officials, modelling is not a prediction, but “possible” scenarios.

“The scenarios should not be considered concrete predictions,” said Alberta Premier Jason Kenney on Wednesday afternoon.

And, there are too many variables experts do not know the answers to at this point.

“This is a common problem,” says Robert Smith? — yes, the question mark is part of his name — a professor who does disease modelling at the University of Ottawa. “Some things are well known and some things are very unknown,” the professor says.

“It is too early for us to know the exact scenario we are in Saskatchewan,” said Dr. Jenny Basran, the SHA’S senior medical information officer.

Saskatchewan, in arriving at its low-end fatality projections, uses a transmission rate of 2.4, meaning that 2.4 people will become infected from each single infected person. This figure comes from Wuhan, China, where the virus originated earlier this year. Saskatchewan’s worst-case scenario assumes four people infected for every one new infection, leading to more than 8,000 deaths.

In Alberta, which has quadruple the population as Saskatchewan, the better-case scenario projects between 400 and 3,100 deaths. But that figure is modelled on a rate of spread of between one and two new infections per each person infected — a figure, government officials said, that arrived from using homegrown data, and not data from other countries, such as Italy or China.

It’s also not clear when infections are going to peak in western Canada — or when isolation can begin to lift.

“It’s effectively impossible to say,” according to Smith?

Saskatchewan’s projections did not indicate when cases might peak, beyond saying the pandemic is likely to continue for weeks or months. Alberta is expecting a peak in late May for its better-case scenario.

Should things go worse than expected in the province, and infections peak more rapidly, Alberta expects to see that peak in early May.

Both provinces detailed the effect that the pandemic could have on their hospital systems. In the projection for the “probable” scenario — which is to say, the better- case scenario — Alberta expects, at the peak in late May, to have between 736 and 900 people in hospital and between 220 and 244 people needing critical care.

In the more dangerous scenario — the worst- case scenario — the province would see between 1,491 and 1,649 in hospital and between 372 and 412 people in intensive care units.

At the moment, Alberta has 8,483 hospital beds, and 295 ICU beds. This means Alberta, in both scenarios, remains within bed capacity. The province is also planning to add roughly 1,000 new ICU beds by the end of April if necessary.

As for Saskatchewan, in the best-case scenario, there would be 390 people in hospital at once, and 120 people in ICU beds. In its worst-case scenario, there would be 4,265 people in hospital and 1,280 in ICU.

At present in Saskatchewan, there are 2,433 hospital beds and 98 ICU beds. Clearly, the province’s ICU capacity would be overwhelmed, even in the best-case scenario. But, Saskatchewan has plans to create “surge capacity,” which would bring the province to 963 ICU beds and 3,180 acute-care beds.

Saskatchewan also revealed a “middle” scenario, of 1,265 people in hospital provincewide and 380 in ICU, which would position the province within healthcare capacity.

Provincial officials also revealed ventilator capacity for critical care COVID-19 patients. Alberta currently has 314 ventilators on hand for COVID-19 patients, with 761 expected by the end of the month. Saskatchewan, meanwhile, has 450 ventilators, but could require as many as 860. Orders have been confirmed for more.