If nothing mitigates or heals the culture clash south of the border, the biggest casualty of COVID-19 may become America’s union.
In 2004, a satirical redrawing of the map of Canada and the United States surfaced after George W. Bush’s narrow victory in the U. S. presidential election. The Canadian provinces, plus the U. S. states that voted for the Democratic presidential candidate, were coloured blue and labelled, cheekily, as “the United States of Canada.” The rest, Republican, or red states, were dubbed “Jesus land,” for their social conservatism and religiosity.
What’s notable today is that this map still holds and, in fact, the divide it highlighted has widened. It is the fault line in America’s culture wars. The majority of people living in the blue states, including Canada’s provinces, support social policies such as universal health care, pro- choice, tougher gun laws, an end to capital punishment, legalization of marijuana, gay rights and respect for the role of the state and its institutions to manage civil society.
What’s deepened the differences is COVID-19, an agnostic disease that has been politicized and resulted in the blue states formally joining forces, through three regional coalitions designed to enact public health policies and initiatives that are more aggressive and science-based than those in red states. These new coalitions include all the 2004 blue states — the three Pacific states, the Great Lakes states, six mid-atlantic states around New York — plus a handful of neighbouring states.
Today, the “two Americas” are more incompatible and, in policy terms, irreconcilable. This led to the unprecedented declaration of independence by blue state coalitions from federal pandemic efforts, in order to access equipment, initiate research, test, track and plan strategies to safely reopen their economies. As they move out from under Washington’s thumb, it’s important to note that these states are the financial underpinning of the U. S. and their increasing alienation represents an existential threat to a united country.
Not surprisingly, California led the way. With an economic output double that of Canada’s, the Golden State is just behind Germany in terms of the size of its economy and could be an independent country if it so desired. California’s representation in Washington has been aggressive and, led by powerful House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her caucus, successfully helped Democrats take over the House of Representatives and impeach President Donald Trump.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has led the nation with his state’s COVID- 19 response. California was the first to lock down its economy and has fared the best among those states with congested urban areas and massive volumes of international travel from infected areas around the world. He also stood up to Trump over Washington’s dysfunctional initial efforts to combat the virus, and was the first to join forces with his neighbouring states, Oregon and Washington. Soon, the other 2004 blue states joined forces, as well. Their mission, as articulated by Newsom, was to manage the pandemic response based on “science, facts, public health and a collaborative spirit.”
The underlying national threat is that blue America is the richest, most populous and most Democratic portion of the U. S., but it is under- represented and governed by a Republican president and Senate, due to years of excessive gerrymandering and a thoroughly undemocratic Electoral College voting system. Democrats won the 2016 election by three million votes, but less than a few hundred thousand votes in three states handed Trump his victory.
The current, unprecedented pushback by powerful blue states angered Trump, who claimed that, “The federal government has absolute power. As to whether I’ll use that power, we’ll see.” This is inaccurate because under the Tenth Amendment of the U. S. Constitution, the states have sweeping powers, including public health and public safety.
The next attack came from Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, of Kentucky, who rejected calls for more financial aid to the states, to help them bear the burden of public health- care costs. He suggested they should just declare bankruptcy and, to further underscore his disdain, his office sent out a press release under the heading, “Stopping Blue State Bailouts.”
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo reacted immediately and called Mcconnell’s statement irresponsible: “You’re not bailing out New York. New York is bailing you out. Every year, we put more money into the federal pot than any other state and Kentucky is the number 3 state in terms of taking money from the federal pot. Give me my money back.”
Worse, the Republicans weaponized the national treasury by handing out huge bailouts to major corporations that provide political donations, as well as by punishing small businesses in blue states, in favour of those in red states. For example, according to Bloomberg News, as of April 17, 56 per cent of small business relief applications were approved in South Carolina, 58 per cent in Texas, 66 per cent in Utah, 69 per cent in Kentucky, 79 per cent in Kansas and 82 per cent in Nebraska. By comparison, only 44.6 per cent of applications from Washington state were approved, 40.1 per cent from New York, 38.4 per cent from California and 30.4 per cent from Washington, D.C.
Trump has also stirred the culture wars with his Twitter messages urging his followers to “liberate” states under lockdown, specifically Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia, which are led by Democratic governors. Protests, in defiance of public health orders and full of “Trump 2020” posters and
Confederate flags, followed. The most recent salvo came from Attorney General William Barr, who is examining whether lockdowns in general, as well as those specifically closing churches and gun stores, represent an infringement on Americans’ First Amendment rights.
The disconnect is so vast that it’s little wonder that Gov. Newsom occasionally refers to his state as a “nation state.” This is a threat that must be taken seriously. Not only is California able to go it alone, but together with Oregon and Washington state, it could form a country with the world’s fourth- largest economy. Likewise, New York’s increasingly alienated 29 million people represent an economy the size of Canada’s.
This growing rift is not only about politics, but also about ideology. Since former president Ronald Reagan’s famous line in 1981 — “Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem” — the opposition to, and delegitimization of, public services has increased. Libertarians, Tea Partiers and Trump’s Republicans talk of dismantling the so-called “deep state,” along with programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. They even have their own cable news network, Fox News, to spread the word. Now, they have politicized a pandemic. Trump initially labelled it a Democratic “hoax” and dragged his feet, which likely cost many lives. Then he exploited the issue to promote himself on television and insult the Democrats, calling them snakes and whiners.
Regional disparities have always characterized the U.S., but the two Americas are becoming increasingly irreconcilable and disenfranchised. Besides the 15 states that have formed health- care coalitions, another seven states fall into the blue state category: three in New England, along with Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia, which have voted Democrat in three out of the last four presidential elections. If included in a revised map, blue America is richer and bigger than the rest of the country. Combined, they generate more taxes for federal coffers than the rest of the country and get little respect from their federal government.
Either that changes, or the regime changes, or the country will. As COVID-19 continues to bear down globally, and if nothing mitigates or heals the culture clash south of the border, the disease’s biggest casualty may become America’s union.