National Post

1.8 million Canadians believe they had or have COVID-19

- Tyler Dawson

• As many as six per cent of Canadian adults — perhaps 1.8 million people — thought they had COVID-19 or think they currently have it, but haven’t been tested for it, says new polling from the Associatio­n for Canadian Studies- Leger Marketing.

And despite repeated urgings from politician­s and public health officials, that same cohort of Canadians aren’t actually behaving all that differentl­y than those who believe they’ve never had the virus.

There has been a concerted effort in many jurisdicti­ons to get as many people as possible tested daily, and recommenda­tions for people to wear masks and take other precaution­s while in public.

But still, it appears that many people do not get tested, even when they think they are sick with the virus.

So far, more than 85,000 Canadians have tested positive for COVID-19 since the pandemic began. The survey suggests six per cent of Canadians 18 and older didn’t get tested, with the percentage highest — nine per cent — among those aged 35 to 54.

Extrapolat­ing for the population, if six per cent of 30 million adult Canadians believed they had COVID- 19, but didn’t get tested, that works out to approximat­ely 1.8 million people who have been essentiall­y self- diagnosed, says Jack Jedwab, president of the Associatio­n for Canadian Studies and chair of the COVID- 19 Social Impacts Network. He adds they are operating on the basis that they are no longer at risk of either catching COVID-19 or passing it on to someone else.

“( It’s) a very high- risk propositio­n,” Jedwab says.

Many Americans believe similarly, with eight per cent — about 20 million Americans — thinking they have or have had the virus, but didn’t get testing ( not including those who said they “don’t know” or preferred not to answer). The figure is highest for Americans aged 30 to 39, at 13 per cent.

Among the cohort of Canadians aged 30-39, fully 25.2 per cent also believe that COVID-19 is basically like the regular flu.

Just 15.3 per cent who don’t believe they’ve had COVID- 19 believe it’s not like the flu.

British Columbians are the most likely to think they were infected, but didn’t get tested ( eight per cent), followed by Ontarians at seven per cent, and Quebecers, Albertans and Atlantic Canadians at six per cent. People in Manitoba and Saskatchew­an were the least likely ( at two per cent) to think they have or had COVID-19 but did not get tested.

What’s most concerning is that those who believe they have had COVID-19 or believe they currently have it are not behaving substantia­lly differentl­y from those who believe they’ve never had it.

“We’re operating on a trust system, to a significan­t degree,” Jedwab says. “When you see these numbers, it’s a source of concern, we need to be sure as we’re working our way through this … that the trust system is something that we can rely on.”

The survey says 47.9 per cent of people who believe they have or had COVID-19 but didn’t get tested wear a mask when out in public, and 51 per cent who believe that do not wear a mask. Among those who don’t believe they’ve had the virus, 54.9 per cent do not wear a mask in public and 44.1 per cent do wear one.

“Clearly, these figures should send an important signal to our public health authoritie­s that we need to be sure people have good informatio­n,” Jedwab says.

There are some difference­s — though slight — about whether or not people worry about their families getting sick.

Almost 19 per cent of those who think they have or had the virus are “very afraid” their families will catch it, compared to just shy of 18 per cent for those who don’t believe they’ve had the virus.

The U. S. data show that 45 per cent of people who believe they’ve had the virus believe they caught it from going out in public, and 29 per cent think they got it from family or friends. Half of all Canadians think they got it from going out in public, 20 per cent think they got it from family or friends, and 18 per cent think they got it from travel abroad.

The polling was done via an online panel among 1,510 Canadians and 1,005 Americans, aged 18 or older. Using data from the 2016 census, results were weighted according to gender, age, language, religion, region, education and the presence of children in the home to be more representa­tive.

There is no margin of error, the survey says, though a sample of 1,012 residents would have an error margin of +/- 3.8 per cent 19 times out of 20.

 ??  ?? SIX PER CENT OF PEOPLE POLLED BELIEVE THEY HAD/ HAVE COVID- 19
SIX PER CENT OF PEOPLE POLLED BELIEVE THEY HAD/ HAVE COVID- 19

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