National Post

Subscripti­on businesses are an investor’s best friend during the pandemic.

- Larry Sarbit,

It’s obvious we have entered a new era filled with fear and radical change to both our economies and medical circumstan­ces, due to the swift arrival of the COVID- 19 pandemic. We have all been stunned with its arrival and the speed of its spread across the globe. Almost no one had a clue that this was coming, but it has led to dramatic change in how we live our lives. What happened to that old- fashioned relative predictabi­lity to which we had grown accustomed? What happened to the 9-to-5 lifestyle we knew only a few months ago? For the moment, it has vanished. When will it return, if ever? We simply don’t know.

In a flash, stores and restaurant­s closed. Large parts of our manufactur­ing and production bases simply shut down. The result has been a massive increase in unemployme­nt on a global scale in a matter of weeks. I think it would be fair to say that none of us alive today have witnessed such a revolution. And most of us are trying to adapt, to catch up to a world turned upside down.

Reflecting on the world over the last century or two, massive changes in technology and science have been major features. And these changes have been occurring at a more rapid pace as time has progressed. Everyday, we are hearing of advances in discipline­s from medicine to communicat­ions and the driving of efficienci­es in production of everything from cars to food production and energy sources. The world, even with the current negative virus impact, has moved steadily forward. All this is wonderful for humanity as a whole.

The key focus is that the world is characteri­zed by one word: Change.

So, with this worldwide, global upheaval, if we look at the sub-world of investing, what can investors do to survive financiall­y, protect their capital and, ultimately, emerge on the other side of this bizarre situation with all their fingers and toes still attached? Given all this change, both positive and negative, is there a strategy that can be employed? We offer our own possible solution to an extremely tough set of circumstan­ces.

All these revolution­s in scientific discovery and the resulting change means change at the corporate level, as well. New ideas, inventions, and creations have had major impacts on companies. “Out with the old, in with the new” has become the standard.

One obvious example: the retail industry. A recent article in The New York Times outlines the death of the department store. “American department stores, once all- powerful shopping meccas that anchored malls and Main Streets across the country, have been dealt blow after blow in the past decade,” the article noted. “But nothing compares to the shock the weakened industry has taken from the coronaviru­s pandemic. The sales of clothing and accessorie­s fell by more than half in March, a trend that is expected to only get worse in April.”

And up until the appearance of the COVID-19 virus, we all know online retailing had been the main disruptor. The emergence and eventual dominance of Amazon. com Inc. has made shopping for virtually anything you can purchase at the mall, easier and more convenient.

Our possible solution to all this disruption is to search for companies that are required by their customers, that don’t change much over the mid to long term, and that will be in business regardless of disruptive events such as the virus.

Take, for example, the fibre cable running in your home, which is now a utility, not the luxury that it was not so many years ago. It’s going to be one of the last things users are going to eliminate. They would sooner cut back on a lot of expenditur­es then not have the ability to communicat­e with their computer over Wi- Fi or stream online movies from Netflix or YouTube. And the beauty of the business is you must continue to pay them month after month to have access. Further, there is a limited number of providers in any given neighbourh­ood, which means they are duopolies or oligopolie­s. For the vast majority of the population, they simply cannot live without it. This is even more so given the fact that with the virus, we are all stuck in our houses or apartments. Usage, I suspect, has done nothing but go much higher. Try living without it.

Another example: try living without your cellphone for a day or two. Here’s another device that has become essential in only a couple of decades to the vast majority of consumers. It’s become our mobile connection to the outside world. Access to entertainm­ent, Google search engines, shopping, etc. And try telling your kids you are cutting off their cell service. Not a popular move! And you must pay the carrier every month.

One last example: Car insurance. This is not a choice expenditur­e; it’s a necessity. Without it, you cannot legally be behind the wheel of a vehicle. And it’s required to be paid every year.

All three cases ( and there are more) are what are known as subscripti­on businesses. Unchanging necessitie­s that people find are nearly impossible to eliminate. And they will likely be there in three to five years even after the pandemic is a distant memory.

These are predictabl­e, essential, basically unchanging services and products, where you can look out into the future with a high degree of visibility. In these times of great uncertaint­y and revolution­ary change, these are businesses you can count on.

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