Public health communications in meltdown
Advice unclear and often contradictory
Léger’s weekly polling for the Association for Canadian Studies suggests the Ontario government’s demonstrable failures on the COVID-19 file may be taking a toll on its popularity … but only at the margin. In mid-may, 86 per cent of Ontarians said they were satisfied “with the measures put in place.” Today it’s 72 per cent, which is still pretty high, considering the newcase rate is roughly where it peaked in mid- April, and considering the distinct odour of incompetence escaping Queen’s Park.
On some levels, it’s understandable Ontarians wouldn’t be angry. The second wave might have come as a disappointment, but it didn’t come as a surprise. There is no evidence the province’s much- maligned back-to-school plan is contributing significantly to virus spread.
But if it were, we wouldn’t know for days — because the demand for testing is once again vastly outstripping supply, even after eligibility criteria were tightened to exclude asymptomatic people. In Toronto, just 14 per cent of tests are being turned around in 24 hours, and just 32 per cent within 48. On Monday, the provincial backlog of tests was more than 68,000, with daily capacity maxing out at just over half that.
It’s infuriating, and Premier Doug Ford’s attempts to shift the blame to Ottawa — where Health Canada continues, insanely, to refuse approval of quick- fire antigen tests — are belied by his own government’s recent promise to pump more than $ 1 billion into increasing capacity. It had most of a relatively COVID- free summer to do that. The announcement was on September 24.
Meanwhile the province’s chief medical officer of health, David Williams, continues to vex and befuddle those who tune into his press conferences. “If you’re going to have a Thanksgiving where you would like to maybe have a large extended group into your location,” he said last week, “we may be asking that you would limit that and that you would keep it to, especially, with those that are in part of your household and family and others.”
Ontario’s official advice on Thanksgiving is all over the place. But at this point in Ontario’s and its municipalities’ history of inane, unpredictable, inscrutable and often contradictory official advice on where not to go and what not to do, it astonishes me that there might be people whose holiday plans actually hinge on it.
If you are going to listen to a public health officer, make it your local one. By my count, 2.1 million Ontarians live in public health units that currently have fewer than 10 active COVID- 19 cases. Assuming you keep it local, Thanksgiving is an entirely different proposition there than in Ottawa or Toronto.
Taking your local public health officer’s advice may mean shutting down your life again, though. “I recommend that individuals only leave their homes for essential activities, such as work, education, fitness, healthcare appointments, and to purchase food,” Toronto’s public health czar Eileen de Villa wrote to Williams on Friday. All the evidence we have supports the safety of outdoor socializing at a reasonable volume and safe distance, but on Monday, De Villa’s colleague, Vera Etches at Ottawa Public Health, specifically counselled against even having an outdoor Thanksgiving with guests from outside of your household.
Their federal counterpart, Theresa Tam’s advice on Thanksgiving seems relatively sensible, particularly in its discussion of safe outdoor gatherings. But why is she offering it, why is she answering reporters’ questions on hyper-local matters, to begin with? ( Why are reporters asking her about it?) There is no advice on family gatherings that’s applicable across Ontario, let alone across the country. What was the point of the Atlantic Bubble, currently home to all of 15 COVID-19 cases, if not to have a relatively normal Thanksgiving? Tam’s advice directly contradicted Etches’, and it was delivered in the same city!
Tam’s Twitter account has been increasingly bizarre of late. “This kick at the curve is a bit different,” she ventured on Friday, or some woefully misguided communications professional ventured on her behalf. “This time, we’ve got to bend it like Canadians: give it the old double- double by layering PERSONAL RISK ASSESSMENT and PREVENTION PRACTICES and RECONFIGURING and DOWNSIZING our in- person # Contactbubble, as and where possible.”
The response was mostly absolute bafflement. What else could it be? A country full of very rule- abiding people is drowning in official rules and advice, often badly delivered, that taken together add up to zero.
Every now and again, someone in charge of fighting this pandemic will say something like “use your best judgment.” Ford did it on Monday. It often begets criticism: We need rules, damn it! But if people can’t be trusted to follow common sense, we’re screwed anyway. Pending any new discoveries about this novel coronavirus, assuming you have half a brain in your head and read the news now and again, you know what’s dangerous and what isn’t. You can behave accordingly.
As for Tam, she would do far better spending her time on areas of actual federal jurisdiction. God knows there is work to be done, starting with raising some hell at Health Canada to get new testing methods approved.