What price for standing up to China?
A new geopolitical order is taking shape. The globe is rapidly realigning under American and Chinese spheres of influence and the pandemic has only raised the stakes. How can Canada finally get serious about its internal stability and external security so it can effectively play a role as a middle power? That is the question this National Post series will answer. Today: Shakir Chambers discusses the realities and repercussions of pursuing a tougher stance toward China.
Over five years in power, the Trudeau government has consistently demonstrated naiveté in its approach to relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Repeatedly ignoring the advice of experts, ex-diplomats and politicians of all stripes, the Liberals have pressed ahead in efforts to get chummy with China. Lately, however, Canada has signalled a shift from its blind- trust approach. In an apparent recognition of their missteps, the Liberals have committed to reviewing Canada’s bilateral relations with the PRC. While this seemingly enlightened government toys with the idea of walking back deepened ties with the communist state, it must also recognize Canada’s limited global power and influence.
We can expect the final product of the government’s China policy review to deliver a tougher stance. Recently, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, along with his ministers of defence and foreign affairs and Canada’s Ambassador to the United Nations, have each publicly criticized Beijing for engaging in “coercive diplomacy” or “hostage diplomacy,” or recommended that NATO keep tabs on China’s actions in Asia. These comments come as Conservative party leader Erin O’toole continues to advocate for a more hawkish approach toward Beijing. Undoubtedly, the stronger positions from both parties are influenced by recent public opinion polling that shows changing attitudes toward China, with more than four- in- five Canadians expressing an unfavourable view of Asia’s superpower.
In pursuit of a tougher approach to China, politicians, senior bureaucrats and Canadians must reckon with global realities: Canada is a small fish in the big pond of global affairs.
Take, for example, Canada’s recent inability to secure a seat on the United Nations Security Council. Despite significant efforts and resources devoted to the cause, the international community decided to accept Ireland and Norway as council members, leaving Canada on the outside looking in. We also know Canada has politely asked allies to lobby China on its behalf to advance the Canadian position on the arbitrary arrests of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. It is unclear to what extent the global community is actually pressing the matter and, while the U. S. has commented publicly, we’ve seen no indication of behavioural change from China.
Make no mistake, adopting a tougher stance toward China is a retaliatory measure. Canada is signalling, and responding to, its disapproval of the Chinese Communist Party’s behaviour. However, in terms of the tools Canada can realistically wield to effect consequential actions against the PRC, its options are few and far between. Of course, any strong move by Ottawa will inspire a rebound effect. Canada is dependent on China, and China has made clear that a pillar of its own foreign policy is to respond to perceived slights from other nations in kind. When it comes to Canada’s China policy, former ambassador David Mulroney aptly illustrated this point in a submission to the House of Commons Special Committee on Canada- China Relations, stating, “there is no risk- free or cost- free option available … Protecting our interests, values and autonomy will come at a cost.” As he concluded, “failing to do this will be more costly still.”
Calls will grow for the Liberals to ban Huawei from Canada’s 5G telecommunications infrastructure, place sanctions on Chinese officials, support Taiwan’s accession to the CPTPP trade group, and strengthen Canada’s strategic partnership with Japan, among other policy responses. These options are worth exploring and may even be necessary. Canada, however, must remember its economic relationship with the PRC is not equal.
Whereas China is Canada’s second biggest trading partner, Canada does not even rank in China’s top 10. Perceived slights from Ottawa could result in further retaliatory trade restrictions from Beijing. Recall 2019, when China restricted or banned imports of Canadian canola, pork and beef.
Chinese students make up 22 per cent of international enrolment at Canadian colleges and universities — offering an easy target for Chinese retribution. Students from the PRC contribute more than $ 4 billion annually to the Canadian economy, and our post- secondary institutions have become reliant on these revenues. Should tensions rise, and Chinese students be ordered home, it would have consequences for higher education in this country.
These important realities could subject Canada to further forms of Chinese economic coercion and leave Canadian consumers and business owners worse off. Consequently, this could morph into adverse political repercussions for the government-of-the-day.
Canadians want a government that will stand up for and promote our values, interests and autonomy abroad. But our decision- makers must be clear- sighted as Canada reviews its bilateral relations with China. In global affairs, both action and inaction come at a cost. As Canadians, we must simply decide the price we are willing to pay.
MAKE NO MISTAKE, A TOUGHER STANCE IS A RETALIATORY MEASURE.