Ontario may avoid worst-case scenario

TORONTO• New projections suggest the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic is slowing in Ontario even though cases remain on the rise, health officials said Thursday as they warned the situation could quickly worsen again.

The latest modelling shows the province appears to be moving away from the worst- case scenario as the second wave continues to take hold, and is expected to settle into a range of 800 to 1,200 new daily cases for the next several weeks, the panel of health officials said.

“Most indicators are showing slow in growth in COVID-19 cases, the trajectory appears to be moving away from the worst case, but cases are continuing to climb,” said Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, one of the people behind the analysis.

“So this is not that we have crested and are now coming back down the other side of the epidemic curve — we’re just getting to a slower period of growth within that curve,” said Brown, who is the dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto.

The projections also show a slower growth in the hospitalization rate and a use of intensive care beds that is “much more within the realm or the limits of the health system right now,” he said.

Of the three projected scenarios, only the worst involves ICU use at a level that would push the health system to limit surgeries, he said.

However, Brown said, things can change quickly, particularly in light of so- called “superspreader events,” he said. Officials pointed to two large outbreaks related to weddings.

Continuing to adopt targeted measures that account for regional variations will be important in trying to contain the spread of the virus, the officials said.

Previous projections showed the province recording 1,000 new daily cases by mid- October. Ontario passed that threshold last weekend but the numbers dropped to the 800 range earlier this week, before rising again Thursday. The province reported 934 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, and 10 new deaths.

The data released Thursday showed substantial differences between public health units in terms of new cases per 100,000 population, per- cent positivity and the ability to obtain test results within two days, as well as in the proportion of cases that can’t be linked to a specific source. “This is important because it’s a measure of the resilience or the public health capacity at this point,” Brown said.

While COVID-19 growth has slowed overall, it has become “much sharper” in long- term care homes, the doctor said. Deaths in longterm care have also risen sharply, he said. Between Aug. 15 and Oct. 9, the province recorded 25 deaths in long- term care, he said. In comparison, there were 27 deaths in long- term care in the last week alone, he said.