Election fallout is heading our way
Though Joe Biden has maintained a steady lead in election polls, Democrats are worried about a last- minute comeback by Donald Trump, as in 2016. These fears may be intended to ward off complacency and drive a strong voter turnout. More indicative than national polls are those in “battleground” states ( Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona) that will inevitably determine the outcome. Biden has an overall edge in these as well, but the gaps are narrowing. Americans are weary about the deprivations caused by the coronavirus, which recently registered record numbers of cases and a spike in hospitalizations.
The latest surge of COVID- 19, including its economic fallout, has dominated the campaign. The president has tried frenetically to make the verdict a choice between him and his challenger and not a referendum on his handling of a pandemic that has already claimed more than 225,000 American lives.
Electors face a stark choice. Trump is an anti- establishment populist who appeals to those who feel disenfranchised and are tired of politicians they regard as corrupt, out of touch and incompetent. His accomplishments, and there have been many, notably on the economy, are overshadowed by his manic style of governing and serious character flaws. Peggy Noonan of the Wall Street Journal has observed that “decorum matters” in the White House when electors, notably seniors, judge presidential candidates.
Trump supporters are more energetic and more certain to vote. That is why Biden’s persistent slogan is “Vote!” Trump is losing support from seniors and independents, two groups vital to his initial victory especially in Florida and Arizona. He has also fallen behind with suburban women.
Biden is a shopworn, occasional ly befuddled Democrat whose 47 years of Congressional and administration service left few distinguishing marks. He became the default, establishment candidate to stop Bernie Sanders but veered hard left to retain support from the most enthusiastic wing of his party. He may win the election for a similar default reason, namely that he is not Trump. Running a careful, limited campaign, primarily from his Delaware basement, he is counting on Trump to do himself in.
The U. S. is highly polarized politically. The media is similarly polarized with little pretence of objectivity from either side. Trump’s legitimacy as president was never really accepted and he has been attacked by Democrats and much of the media since the day he was elected.
Inequalities abound in America. The wealthiest 1.0 per cent are obscenely wealthy. Because of COVID, eight million more Americans have fallen below the poverty line, creating the greatest inequality in several decades. The gap has widened further between those who can work virtually and those who cannot.
COVID is also why more than half the electorate will have voted by mail before Nov. 3. Since states have different rules on how and when votes will be tabulated, there are legitimate concerns about how quickly the result will be determined.
No matter who wins, the verdict will be received acrimoniously. Polarized politics will continue. We have to hope that key U. S. institutions will hold fast and ensure a civil transfer of power.
If Biden wins and the Democrats capture the Senate as well as the House, he will have an open field to implement what is a radical platform. Much will depend on the calibre of people recruited for key portfolios: Treasury, State, Defence and Homeland Security. If Trump wins, the emphasis will be on economic recovery and a speedy distribution of vaccines and treatments for the virus.
Trump had hoped to expose the flaws of his opponent, especially scandalous revelations in the New York Post alleging that Biden’s son Hunter reaped financial gains in Ukraine, Moscow and China with implied involvement by his father. The former vice- president dismissed the reports as a “smear;” the legacy media ignored the story and two social media giants — Facebook and Twitter — suppressed any mention of the allegations.
Ironically, the fact that 56 per cent of Americans believe they are “better off today than in 2016” is not playing in Trump’s favour. One reason may be that his opponent is not as unpopular as Hillary Clinton was in 2016. Biden may not be inspiring, but he is seen as “good enough” by a broad base of voters.
Returning to the campaign after his own bout with COVID, President Trump is doing what he does best, defending his record and directing fire at his challenger in a whirlwind schedule of events before large crowds of enthusiastic MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters in battleground states. Biden has not taken the bait. He had no campaign events in the four days before the last debate and left the campaigning to his vice- presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, and to such prominent surrogates as former president Barack Obama.
The final debate was more civil and substantive and may provide a sharper focus on the differences between the two candidates, but, with less than a week remaining, Trump faces an uphill challenge.
If Biden wins, international relations and alliance issues should be more conventional and less jarring. Trump’s “America First” foreign policy has shattered alliance cohesion and diminished U. S. global leadership. Achievements in the Middle East and elsewhere are overshadowed by fractious relations with erstwhile allies. The tariff war with China has not delivered. According to the United States Census Bureau, the U. S. trade deficit with China was US$346.8 billion in 2016 and US$576.9B in 2019.
Biden would definitely be bad news for Western Canadian energy as he has pledged to kill the Keystone XL pipeline and to “transition” out of oil. He would be better news for those favouring more action on climate change. On trade, his Buy American plan would be “America First” on steroids. The Democrats, especially the Sanders band, are fiercely protectionist.
If Biden’s platform of increased taxes and regulations weakens the American economy, that will have a negative spillover effect on Canada whereas increases in U.S. corporate tax rates and a return to Paris accord commitments should alleviate some of Canada’s competitive disadvantages.
A Trump win would be good for Western Canadian energy and negative for climate change advocates.
On balance, Biden would likely be better for Canada on global issues, on style if not on substance, but Trump would have the edge on our economic prospects.
The election will not alter the sobering reality that Canada no longer has a special relationship with the U. S. Nor can we rely on personal chemistry at the top to temper disputes and protect our interests. We must act more in our own self-interest, supplementing diplomatic links with the administration with a targeted approach on Congress, the 30 states for which Canada is the No. 1 trading partner, and American businesses and consumers having direct ties to Canada. We also need to broaden our global focus particularly by intensifying relations with CPTPP partners.
For the next decade, the most critical global issue with direct implications for Canada will be how the U. S. administration manages relations with China.