Starbucks signals the worst is past

Starbucks Corp. capped its fiscal year with better- than- expected quarterly results as the key U. S. and Chinese markets inched closer to growth — but didn’t quite get there.

The coffee giant reported global same- store sales that were down nine per cent in the fourth quarter, better than the 11.9- per- cent drop analysts surveyed by Consensus Metrix were expecting. Although that marks the third-straight quarter of overall declines, the size of the drops has abated since the spring, when much of the world was on lockdown. In the U.S., comparable sales fell nine per cent, beating expectations.

Starbucks is facing heightened scrutiny as it adapts its “third- place” business model — which aims to give customers a place to hang out that’s neither work nor home — in a pandemic world. While it has made progress in digital and takeout service, the firm is proving more vulnerable to the new pandemic trends than other big restaurants, like Mcdonald’s and Domino’s Pizza.

Looking forward, however, Starbucks says it gets better from here: The chain forecasts global comparable sales will grow between 18 per cent and 23 per cent during the first quarter and 2021, with expected growth as high as 32 per cent in China. The recovery at home will be a little slower, with comparable sales in the Americas rising between 17 per cent and 22 per cent in the first quarter and next year.

“Our strategies are working and I am optimistic that we will emerge from the COVID- 19 pandemic as a stronger and more resilient company,” CEO Kevin Johnson said in an email.

As of Thursday’s close, Starbucks shares are up less than one per cent this year, trailing the S&P 500.

Starbucks, like its rivals, has been trying to adapt to a new normal where delivery and drive- thru are king and few pandemic- wary diners want to linger inside stores. The company, which was already testing pick- up- only stores before the virus hit, has accelerated the rollout of to- go locations that boast smaller footprints and less seating.

To make room for the new stores, which will be in cities like New York, Boston and Chicago, Starbucks has said it will be closing about 400 of its traditional cafés in urban areas. In the latest quarter, Starbucks opened 480 net new stores, ending the year with 32,660 locations globally, nearly half of which are in the U.S.

Like other quick- service restaurants, Starbucks has said that consumers are buying more per order but visiting much less frequently during the pandemic. That’s still the case this quarter: In the U.S. and Americas region, the number of transactions were down 25 per cent but the average bill per visit was up 21 per cent. The trend was similar on a global basis.