World adapts to new America

Whether Donald Trump continues in office or is replaced by Joe Biden, the course of history has already likely changed: Can any of America’s allies look at the U. S. the same way? A Biden victory will not restore confidence in America’s leadership role, and a Trump re- election will be a clear signal that America’s allies may well be on their own.

There are rational justifications for some of Trump’s foreign policy moves — there have been thoughtless disasters, but he has had successes.

But the meaning of Trump, for the world at large, may be that America has put its friends and allies on notice that it is done doing the heavy lifting of Western security. From now on, we might not exactly be on our own — there are still sound reasons for even a completely transactional U. S. leadership to preserve and protect some of its alliances. But some of the burden for that has got to shift onto the allies.

It’s not clear Canada, for one, has gotten that message yet.

Some of our allies have. It’s been interesting to watch, in recent years, as many of our allies, or at least friends, have drawn closer in the Indo-pacific. Proximity to China is having an obvious effect on Japanese, Australian and Indian planners. Today, right now, the U. S. fleet would still do the heavy lifting in any conflict with China. It can’t be any other way.

But the moves of our regional allies suggest that they are at least pondering what would have been unthinkable not long ago: That America might look on future fights, shrug, and decide it’s not for them. Trump has been extremely clear for the past four years that America was tired of footing the biggest part of the bill for our shared security. And you know what? He has a point.

It seems inconceivable that Australia, or Japan, or Canada would get the Kurdish treatment, abandoned by the U. S. without much thought at their time of need. Perhaps in the context of China, it would be — the U. S. knows that it’ll need allies if it hopes to contain China, even if the only job of said allies is to absorb some cruise missiles that would otherwise put U. S. carriers on the bottom. But outside of outright war, will the U. S. much care if China crushes some poor ally’s economy, or steams fleets of warships up and down a distant coast in a show of force?

Maybe. Maybe not. Our Asia- Pacific friends get this. Nearness to danger tends to help dispel comforting illusions and residual normalcy bias.

But Canada, perhaps, remains a bit too far away. Even as Australia, India, Japan and the U. S. send ships to join an exercise, clearly aimed at sending China a message, here at home, the prime minister was urgently sending France a message.

France has been struck by a series of Islamist terror attacks in recent weeks, linked, again, to caricatures of the Islamic prophet Muhammad. Lobbed a softball opportunity on Friday to make a statement defending free speech, Justin Trudeau swung and missed, saying in effect that free speech was important and stuff, but it’s also important that we be nice to each other.

By Tuesday, the PM was walking it back, belatedly offering a proper if still tepid statement agreeing that caricatures, even of religious figures, ought not to be capital crimes.

Perhaps this is another example of the PM’S too commonly indulged habit of speaking before he thinks. More worrying is the possibility that Trudeau, the leader of a G7 nation that was a founding member of the Western alliance, isn’t entirely sold on the values the alliance was intended to preserve and protect, or necessarily clear on what they actually are.

Canada has something of a leg up on Japan, Australia and all the rest. Due to our geographic proximity, America has to keep the bad guys away.

But they certainly don’t have to do it on our terms, or in ways we’d particularly enjoy (the dispute over Canadian jurisdiction over Arctic waters is a classic and telling example — the U. S. doesn’t want Russia or China dominating them, but that doesn’t mean they think much of our claim to sovereignty).

It is in Canada’s interest, and the interest of the Western alliance generally, for us to realize that our little post- Cold War respite from history has wrapped up, that U. S. global leadership is uncertain, at best, and that the only way to offset the possible loss of U.S. power is for all the world’s democracies to pony up and be prepared to defend what they claim to cherish. In this case, the world really does need more Canada, so long as Canada is willing to actually put up the hard power assets to make a meaningful difference to our national and collective security.

Canadian frigate HMCS Winnipeg recently joined with U.S. and Japanese naval forces that were taking part in a regular exercise. The Winnipeg was in the area already, as part of a UN mission enforcing sanctions on North Korea. It’s nice that we were nearby and could join in, but it also speaks to how little role we play: the Winnipeg is a fine ship, but there are only 12 like her, and it’s an awfully big ocean.

Canada likes to talk about the rules-based international order, but someone needs to enforce those rules. The geopolitical environment we live in is not simply the natural order of things. We are not guaranteed the many advantages we have, and we certainly aren’t owed them. The U.S. has done the job of keeping the world safe and friendly for countries like ours for generations, but seems less and less interested, for reasons that aren’t likely to change any time soon, no matter the outcome of the U.S. election. Canada needs to get serious, or find ourselves on the outs with our less complacent allies.

If the last four years haven’t been enough of a wakeup call, what will be?