Biden won’t be able to dismantle Trump’s legacy as a world leader.
No sooner had Joe Biden declared victory in the presidential election than he pledged that his first act as U. S. president would be to reverse Donald Trump’s legacy. While he presumably intends the majority of these changes to relate to domestic issues, such as immigration and the fight against COVID-19, an incoming Biden administration also appears keen to reverse many of the key policies that have defined Trump’s role as a world leader.
Biden has made encouraging noises about rejoining the Paris climate- change agreement and lifting the onerous travel ban on mostly Muslim countries that was imposed before the coronavirus outbreak made global travel redundant. One of his first phone calls postelection with a foreign leader was with U. K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, but he has also committed himself to rebuilding relations with those members of the Western alliance, such as Germany, that have not enjoyed the easiest relationship with the Trump White House. And the former vice-president has made it clear that he wants to take a different approach on some of the defining foreign policy issues of the Trump era.
So far as changing tack on so- called soft- power issues is concerned, Biden can expect to encounter little resistance. In an age when the modern- day obsession with climate change will always take precedence over hard-power issues like nuclear proliferation, the U. S. will be welcomed with open arms by the climate lobby. Similarly, he can expect a warm reception from European leaders still smarting from the chastisement they received from Trump over his legitimate gripe that it is unfair to expect Washington to bear the brunt of the cost of defending some of the world’s wealthiest nations.
Even so, if Biden believes he can completely reverse Trump’s legacy, then he could find himself in for a nasty surprise.
Trump’s presidency may have been swamped by controversy, but that cannot detract from the fact that, in tackling the key international challenges of the day, he has proved himself to be a revolutionary leader, whose refreshing approach to confronting some of the world’s less appealing wrongdoers has established a framework that Biden will find very hard to dismantle.
The chastening effect Trump’s uncompromising attitude has had on authoritarian regimes like China can be seen in their somewhat muted response to the prospect of Biden replacing him in the White House. Rather than celebrating the political demise of their bêtenoire, China’s Communist rulers realize that, thanks to Trump, the era when they could pull the wool over the eyes of American policy- makers about their ambitions are long gone. Washington’s foreign- policy establishment is unanimous in viewing Beijing as the most significant threat to America’s global supremacy. As one senior Biden aide commented after the election result, the foreign- policy priority will be “China. China. China.”
Russia is another rogue power that has little reason to celebrate the prospect of a new administration. Although Trump initially believed he could establish a constructive partnership with President Vladimir Putin, it never materialized. On Russia there is a cross- party consensus that — to use Mr Biden’s phrase — Moscow is run by a “kleptocratic authoritarian system.”
The Middle East is one area where Biden has indicated he wants to make radical changes, declaring his intention to rejoin the nuclear deal with Iran and seeking closer co- operation with Palestinian leaders, whose three- year political boycott of the White House over the Trump administration’s decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem has largely proved to be self-defeating.
While Palestinian leaders indulged in a collective sulk, Trump succeeded in making a historic breakthrough in Israeli- Arab relations, with the Jewish state establishing diplomatic ties with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan, and with many other Arab states poised to follow.
So if the Palestinians expect a radical change in American policy, they will be disappointed. The Democratic leader has already said he intends to maintain the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem, and any attempt by an incoming Biden ad
THE FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITY WILL BE ‘CHINA. CHINA. CHINA.’
ministration to meddle with Trump’s peace deal would encounter opposition from Congress — assuming, that is, the Republicans retain their Senate majority.
Similarly, Biden will encounter stiff resistance from Congress if he tries to revive the Iran deal. While Tehran has already demanded that Washington rejoin the agreement negotiated by President Barack Obama, Iran itself is now in breach of the deal after resuming work on enriching uranium.
Furthermore, any attempt by Washington to rebuild relations with Iran will, given the extent of Tehran’s malign influence in the Arab world, have a negative effect on Washington’s peace initiatives in the region.
Biden may have claimed victory in his attempt to remove his opponent from the White House, but he will face a far harder task if he tries to dismantle Trump’s legacy as a world leader.