Rodgers has plenty left in the tank

If you wanted to argue entering the 2020 season that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was in for another down year, the evidence was there. The former two- time MVP saw his completion rate decline for the third straight year in 2019, dragging his passer rating downward as well. It looked like a decline typical of quarterbacks in their late 30s, and one that justified the Packers’ selection of Utah State quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft. Instead we have seen a rebirth, with Rodgers performing in such stellar fashion it’s raised the question of whether he is indeed at the end of his career and, perhaps, if the Jordan Love Era will begin in Green Bay at all.

Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Rodgers has completed 68 per cent of his passes for 2,889 yards, 29 touchdowns and four interceptions. He leads the league in passer rating (115.8) which, if he maintains the lead for the season, would be the second time a quarterback has done so over the age of 36 since 2002, the first year the league expanded to 32 teams. The other was 39- year- old Drew Brees in 2018. Rodgers is also the second most-valuable passer of 2020 per ESPN’S Total Quarterback Rating ( 84.0) and according to the game charters at Pro Football Focus, who subjectively review each play in the NFL.

Rodgers has a number of factors working in his favour. Green Bay’s offensive line is the second-best pass-blocking unit of 2020, per Pro Football Focus, keeping his hits to a minimum, which is good for both his production and his health. He also benefits from having a world class wide receiver in Davante Adams. The two have connected on 68 of 89 passes for 847 yards and 10 touchdowns this year with just two interceptions, producing a 133.5 passer rating. In addition, Sunday saw the return of Allen Lazard to the lineup He has caught 15 of 20 targets for 272 yards and two touchdowns in four games played, resulting in a 150.0 passer rating on those passes. Those two, plus Marquez Valdes-scantling, give Rodgers one of the best receiving corps in the NFL.

While the twilight years for both Brees and Tom Brady may make you think such success is the norm, it’s important to remember that it is not. Quarterbacks typically peak around 29 years old, maintain that level of production for a few years and then start to slide around the age of 35 years old. Rodgers, who has been an above-average quarterback for his age since taking over the starting job from Brett Favre in 2008, appeared to finally succumb to Father Time over the past several seasons. For example, his 97.6 passer rating in 2018 was five points higher than the league average, on par for a quarterback for his age. Last year it was 4.4 points higher than average, again right in line with the aging curve. This year his passer rating is almost 22 points higher than the rest of the NFL, a large departure from what we would expect.

Now that he’s shown he can reverse the trend, a look comparing him to his Hall-ofFame-worthy peers suggests Rodgers should continue to shine. His stats outshine both Brees and Brady at this age, illustrating he too could sustain a high level of play into his 40s. Plus, Rodgers is scoring 26 more points per 100 plays ( passing and rushing) than expected this year after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each opportunity, per data from Trumedia. Brady scored 17 more points per 100 plays than expected in 2014 at 37 years old and Brees managed 16 more points per 100 plays at that same age.

With stats like these it is worth wondering if Love will ever get a shot at the Green Bay’s starting quarterback position. Rodgers’s four-year, $134-million contract expires in 2024 — unless he exercises his opt-out clause in 2022 — potentially paving the way for a change under centre. Love is under contract until 2023 with a club option for a fifth year in 2024 that must be exercised in Year 3. In other words, it is possible the Packers will face a decision on Love without him ever taking a meaningful snap for the club.

And look at what happened in New England. The Patriots made the decision to move on from Brady after a 20-year run only to find themselves 4- 6, putting their streak of 11 post- season appearances at risk. Brady is helping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vie for the NFC South divisional crown. That alone should give Green Bay hesitation about starting the Love era too soon.