Restrictions crucial to avert wave, experts say

TORONTO • Aggressive vaccination and maintaining a stay-at-home order would help Ontario avoid a third wave and another lockdown, health experts advising the province said Thursday as the government prepared to ease restrictions for most regions next week.

The pandemic science advisory group said public health measures, including a provincial lockdown imposed on boxing day and stay-at-home order issued last month, have cut COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and positivity rates across Ontario.

but dr. Adalsteinn brown, co-chair of the group, said more contagious variants of COVID-19 are spreading and currently account for five to 10 per cent of all cases.

That will likely cause cases to increase again by late February, brown said, which is why strong public health measures like a stayhome order and vaccination of vulnerable groups are important.

“Without the ability to respond quickly and effectively, and without the ability to control spread in the community, we face the very real risk of a third wave, and potentially a third lockdown,” he said.

The province could see “exponential growth” of the variant that emerged in the u.k. if it lifts public health measures and is unable to significantly reduce the rate at which the virus spreads, brown added.

The group’s projections on COVID-19 were issued a day after the province began a gradual reopening of its economy by lifting the stayat-home order for three regions with low cases.

The rest of the province, except for three hot spots in the Greater Toronto Area, are set to have the order lifted next week when they transition back to a colour-coded restrictions system. Toronto, Peel region and york region are set to remain under the order until at least Feb. 22.

The province’s top doctor said the government will announce Friday which categories of the restrictions system some regions will fall into, based on their case rates.

dr. david Williams said people should not take the gradual reopening as a sign that all public health rules will lift. residents will still be asked to stay at home as much as possible and strictly adhere to masking and physical distancing, he said.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath called on Premier doug Ford to halt Ontario’s gradual economic reopening and extend lockdown measures in light of the new projections.

“I’m asking doug Ford: stop in your tracks, turn this bus around,” she said. “We can’t go on as if this information doesn’t exist.”

Meanwhile, the number of deaths in nursing homes in the second wave of the pandemic has now drawn nearly even with the number of deaths in the facilities from the first wave.

A total of 3,769 long-term care residents have died as a result of COVID-19 since the pandemic began.