On genocide and China

Re: Refusal to say ‘genocide’ should bring disgust, Terry Glavin; and Time for a ‘don’t buy China’ campaign, Kelly Mcparland, both Feb. 18

Justin Trudeau insists that “genocide” is an extremely loaded term and that Canada needs to be cautious and undertake more study before we apply it to the treatment of the Uyghurs by the Chinese Communist Party dictators in Beijing. This is the same Justin Trudeau who had no hesitation to label Canada’s admittedly racist and shoddy treatment of Indigenous peoples as a genocide.

One might accept that the prime minister’s caution in labelling the Chinese treatment of the Uyghurs a genocide is out of concern for the treatment of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, who remain hostages of the Beijing thugs. But two years of attempting to curry favour with the CPC has done nothing to help the two Michaels while Meng Wanzhou wanders Vancouver at will awaiting the outcome of her case.

Speaking the truth to power matters. “Hypocrisy” is a loaded term, too. But in the case of Justin Trudeau it appears to apply.

Paul Clarry, Aurora, Ont.

Thank you Mr. Mcparland. My first question before buying anything is “Where is it made?” I have taken this stance for several years now because of China’s complete disregard for shark, rhino and tiger survival. But let’s go one step farther. Can we get someone who is familiar with social media to start a movement to boycott the CBC, CTV, TSN, SN, etc. if they broadcast the Olympics from China? If enough people sign on, so that advertisers pull out, China will hurt in several ways. Let’s do what the Liberals don’t have the courage to do.

Larry Baswick, Stratford, Ont.

Ayear ago, Alberta’s Minister of Finance Travis Toews had an upbeat message about Alberta’s growth prospects for 2021. With growing revenues and flattened spending, Alberta could balance the budget by the next election after a string of deficits since the fiscal year 2014-15. One month later the province faced two hits: the COVID-19 fallout and a short-lived oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Instead of Alberta’s roller coaster climbing in 2020, it speedily fell with the worst downturn since the Great Depression. Thursday’s budget lays out the cold hard facts. GDP fell 7.8 per cent in 2020 rather than rise by 2.5 per cent. Instead of employment rising by 1.4 per cent, it fell by 6.6 per cent.

The deficit has ballooned to be $20.2 billion, and is estimated to remain elevated at $18.2 billion for the 202122 fiscal year. Net debt is rising further to $82.5 billion (23.5 per cent of GDP). Unlike the federal government, the budget introduces a fiscal anchor to keep net debt from rising by more than 30 per cent of GDP.

Despite all the bad news and the continuing pandemic health restrictions, Alberta’s economy is starting to turn around with growth expected at 4.8 per cent in 2021 followed by 3.7 per cent in 2022.

As chair of the Alberta Premier’s Economic Advisory Council, I was updated this past week by leaders of several industrial sectors. What I heard was generally positive. Oil and gas prices and production have returned to pre-pandemic periods. TMX and Enbridge Line 3 pipelines are moving to completion and mergers in the sector are starting to take place.

Agriculture and forestry yields and prices have been buoyant, pulling up the rural economy. The tech industry, seeing new jobs and investments, is now concerned about talent — a much better problem to worry about. On the other hand, other industries such as airlines, retail, restaurants and tourism have yet to see light at the end of the tunnel.

Even in the best of times, it is not easy to be a minister of finance. Spending demands for health, education and social services easily outstrip available revenues. The public is resistant to new taxes. It is much easier to run up low-interest debt since those picking up the tab aren’t here to object.

No wonder Winston Churchill, when Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, observed in 1926: “In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound, and everything that is sound is disagreeable.”

Alberta’s short term economic and fiscal strategy is therefore no surprise with its focus on Covid-related health spending and employment. The minister previously said that he wanted to get spending under control as Alberta’s per capita expenditures in health, education and infrastructure has been higher than the other large provinces.

Yet, this budget hikes spending by $4 billion since 2019-20 including a $2.5 billion contingency fund for disaster relief, Covid-health spending and the recovery plan.

The budget holds the line on other spending especially public sector compensation, which will likely attract criticism from the unions. The $1.3 billion Keystone XL exposure can’t be booked until the project is officially cancelled.

With a weak economy, this was not the time to raise taxes including a sales tax. Very little changed on the revenue side except the government froze provincial property taxes again. That should be a lesson to the cities. Today, the C.D. Howe Institute came out with a report showing that the huge reserve funds available in Calgary and Edmonton should make property tax hikes unnecessary.

Alberta’s volatile resource revenues have been a significant benefit to the province over the years. It has enabled the province to compete for capital and skilled labour. It also helped enable Albertans to bear the cost of transfers to other provinces through the federal budget, which was $4,000 per capita in 2019.

Given Alberta’s extraordinary contribution to the rest of Canada, it is not surprising that the budget mentions grievances over federal policies. It expressed its unhappiness with the cap on the stabilization program as well as the $3.3 billion indirect cost to Albertans to prevent losses in Equalization program payments to Quebec and other have-not provinces.

While the energy sector (including renewables, refining, petrochemical and related services) accounts for 23 per cent of GDP, that means significant growth opportunities are possible in the other three quarters of the economy. The province is moving ahead with $3.1 billion invested in its longer-term recovery strategy initially laid out in its June economic recovery document — infrastructure, reduction in red tape and support for strategic sectors ranging from agriculture and manufacturing to hightech and finance.

We will see if the recovery strategy works. So far, the corporate tax rate reduction to 8 per cent, the new incremental research tax credit and co-investment funds have started to bear some fruit.

If U.S. President Biden pushes up the U.S. federal corporate tax rate from 21 to 25 per cent or more, Alberta will have the lowest corporate income tax rate in all of North America, which will further make the province attractive to many companies in all sectors.

As Alberta moves closer to an election in two years, voters will likely tune into plans for prosperity. With the shift to lower carbon energy in the coming decades, the province faces several key issues. Should it save resource revenues to build up a much bigger Heritage Fund? How should it diversify the economy? How should it make its public sector operate better in a digitized world? How can it make its tax system support growth?

These big issues are left for another time. This budget was all about today’s Covid-wracked economy.