How many Olympic dreams will be crushed?
COVID will loom over these Games
Maybe the worst of it is over. In the space of a few hours on Monday night here, the delayed Tokyo Olympics were popping leaks and taking on far too much water. Three athletes tested positive for COVID-19, doubling the number of confirmed cases among competitors in a blink.
For all of the broader concerns about attempting a pandemic Olympics in a country that doesn’t really want them anymore, the rash of positive cases was a reminder that the health risks extend to the participants, too, and that even the complicated infection-control measures of Tokyo 2020 will not ensure a virus-free Games.
By Tuesday evening in the reluctant host city there had been no further reports of cases among athletes, which if nothing else gave the IOC and the local organizing committee a breather. But COVID-19 will loom over these proceedings for the next three weeks, for the simple reason that it will only take one positive test to ruin someone’s Olympic dreams. The question is not whether it will happen, but to whom it will happen.
Consider the events of Monday. One of the confirmed cases was first described as a member of the U.S. women’s gymnastics team. That’s the team that includes Simone Biles, the loaded spring of a gymnast who is one of the biggest stars of the Olympics. Had a virus brought her down in a way that gravity has not? It soon emerged that, no, one of her teenage teammates had tested positive, and as an alternate had not been in close contact with the big hitters of the U.S. team. Crisis averted, for now.
Professional sports have already provided a template for how these things can play out. Whether it was Chris Paul missing part of the NBA playoffs or Jon Rahm withdrawing from a PGA tournament while holding a big lead, to pick just two examples, athletes can and have tested positive for COVID-19 even while feeling fine. But in all but the rarest of cases, a pro athlete will miss some time and then return to play. The Olympics, obviously, would be a much bigger missed opportunity. Someone who has been training for four — now five — years to compete in Tokyo wouldn’t get another potential crack at their event until 2024 in Paris. Many athletes only ever make it to one Games. It’s not inconceivable that a positive test from a perfectly asymptomatic athlete would still be the end of their only shot at Olympic glory.
And it’s not inconceivable because of the nature of these Games, with organizers attempting the daunting task of trying to keep a transmissible airborne virus at bay among tens of thousands of Olympic visitors from around the world. Having just arrived in Tokyo on Monday, the challenges of trying to implement a vast and unwieldy containment “bubble” around the Olympics are plainly evident. Visitors are required to provided negative test results before boarding planes to Japan and at the border, and are tested again upon arrival. But through many layers of airport checks, the nice people seemed more interested in a health questionnaire than they did in scrutinizing my test results, possibly because the test results are just a bunch of words on an official-looking piece of paper. If the right words were there, you were good. An iron curtain at the border, it was not.
Once past the airport, Olympic visitors are supposed to quarantine in hotels for three days, although exceptions can be made for official job duties, a term which you will note has plenty of wiggle room. Meanwhile, those observing quarantine are largely doing it by the honour system, given that organizers were never going to be able to strictly enforce such rules on 20,000 visitors spread throughout the city and, in some cases, the country. Organizers recently sent a note to foreign journalists emphasizing the importance of following the rules, and noting that Japanese media “reported extensively on a number of cases where Games-related visitors from overseas were seen drinking in downtown areas of Tokyo.” It further warned of “grave reputational risk” caused by such behaviour, which is a fantastic misunderstanding of what professional journalists think would damage their reputation.
In my hotel, an older gentleman is stationed by a little desk near the front doors. He does not seem to have any way of knowing who is an Olympic visitor and who is not, who is serving their quarantine and who is free to leave the hotel, and it’s unclear what he would do with this information if he had it. If I try to bolt through the doors, would he care? Would he notice? I’m only in Day 1 of quarantine; let’s check back Thursday.
No doubt some number of the thousands of athletes and coaches in Tokyo are asking themselves similar questions. Some other number will follow all the rules and potentially be exposed to COVID-19 due the congregate setting of the Olympic Village. That number, so far, is small. But unlike a normal Olympics, when the majority of athletes would be here by now, they are only allowed to arrive a few days before their first event this time.
Which means the stories of Olympic hopefuls who test positive upon entry almost certainly aren’t over.