SMUG LIBERAL CANADIANS SHOULD REALIZE BIDEN IS NO FRIEND
AS AMERICAN HEGEMONY FADES, WE NEED TO BE READY. — BEN WOODFINDEN
The unmitigated disaster, and tragedy, that the American withdrawal from Afghanistan has turned into will likely soon fade out of the news cycle. But the consequences of the disaster are likely to be long reaching, and spell trouble for Canada. An increasingly unreliable and inward looking America is a dangerous reality we need to quickly adjust to.
Pierre Trudeau once said that living next to the United States is “like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.” It’s an apt quote. Trudeau’s use of an elephant in this case is, unintentionally, extremely symbolic of a pervasive facet of the Canadian psyche and how we view America. The mascot of the Republican party, the party of red state America, is an elephant (the Democratic mascot is a donkey). Mainstream Canadian opinion, both among ordinary Canadians and Canadian elites, is marked by a strong anti-american streak. But calling it anti-americanism doesn’t quite do it justice. It would be better to describe this sentiment as being more about being anti-red state America.
When you drill down into what parts of America we tend to focus our smug sense of superiority on it is overwhelmingly the bits that are associated with red state America. Guns, evangelicals, MAGA hats, lack of public health care, social conservatism. The things we look down on America for and build our “we’re not American” identity around are things that contrast us with red state America. We’re not anti-california. We’re anti-alabama. Whenever a Republican is in charge, Canada must be wary. When Democrats are running the show, we can relax.
This is a mindset we must shake off. The last eight months, and last week especially, demonstrate why Biden’s presidency was seen in many capitals, including Ottawa, as a sort of return to normal. The America first attitude of the Trump administration, bluster about NATO, trade deals, and reneging on America’s global commitments would fade and some semblance of normalcy would return.
But what we need to realize is that normalcy has returned, and it isn’t the old consensus. The speed at which Afghanistan fell to the Taliban is stunning. But what is even more stunning is that the Americans seem to have genuinely had no idea this was coming. In July Biden was insisting a collapse like this couldn’t happen, and even last week intelligence still suggested Kabul’s fall was 90 days away. None of the explanations for how this happened are comforting. Either their intelligence just had no idea what was going on. Or maybe intelligence and military officials knew and weren’t saying anything. Or maybe Biden and other officials knew and just didn’t care.
It’s probably a combination. But what that signals is disturbing. America is increasingly ambivalent about its global commitments, and a nation increasingly divided into two warring political tribes. Biden appears ready to continue the America first approach of Trump, and while there remain differences between Republicans and Democrats on foreign policy, a new America first consensus is emerging. It might be safe to describe this new America as a “rogue superpower.”
The way the Biden administration has treated Canada since January is a perfect illustration of what this looks like. One of Biden’s first decisions was to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline. But Biden had no problems waiving sanctions on the company building the Russian pipeline Nord Stream 2. Just last week Biden asked OPEC to increase oil supply. Biden has strengthened a Buy American pledge that may freeze out Canadian companies from the U.S. government procurement market. The Americans were unwilling to reciprocate on the border reopenings earlier this month, when we decided it was time to open the border to fully vaccinated Americans for non-essential travel.
The point is not that Biden is uniquely bad and a Republican would be good. It’s that this kind of mindset needs to die if we are to protect our interests dealing with a rogue and unreliable America. We still have a safe relationship, our survival isn’t threatened. But after the last week there are plenty of countries wondering whether they can rely on the Americans when push comes to shove. In Taiwan these questions take on an existential urgency.
Geography means that Canada is tied to America, for better or for worse. It doesn’t matter whether the president has an R or a D after their name, a realism is needed here to recognize that as American hegemony fades we need to be ready to be able to defend and protect our own interests without always being dependent on the Americans. Sharing a bed with an elephant is dangerous, but we shouldn’t be complacent about sharing a bed with an unstable donkey either.
IN TAIWAN, THESE QUESTIONS TAKE ON AN EXISTENTIAL URGENCY.