For the Liberals, an ill wind blows

The Nova Scotia provincial election results are being pored over by federal parties like augurs interpreting the will of the gods by studying the flight of birds. What does it all mean for next month’s federal vote — if anything?

Many political watchers were shocked by the vote that swept the Liberals from power after eight years, replacing them with Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives. It was a peculiar election in more ways than one.

There are parallels with the current federal campaign, but we know correlation does not equate to causation. Voters judged that the provincial Liberals had been in power too long and showed them the door — a fatigue that does not yet appear to apply to Justin Trudeau’s federal party after six years in office.

That said, it is too fundamental a shift in the public mood to be ignored.

The riding was so close that Zarrillo initially requested a recount, which was terminated part way through and didn’t change the outcome. Zarrillo, who is running again, said she believes COVID has changed how voters look at the issues and will change the outcome in the riding this time.

“People are certainly in a very different place than they were two years ago,” she said. “People are much more focused on their health, and recovering from COVID right now so I do think that the result will be different.”

Despite the close threeway split last time, she believes the race is primarily between the Conservatives and the NDP.

“Although it might seem that it’s a close three-way race, it’s really been the NDP and the Conservative time after time after time,” she said.

Shin was not available before press time, but will be on the ballot again for the Conservatives. Will Davis, who did not run in the riding in 2019, will represent the Liberals this time out. The riding was a battleground in 2015 as well, with the New Democrat coming out on top, the Liberal candidate in second and the Conservative in third, but the margins were thin in 2015 as well.

Davis said he expects a tight, three-way race again.

“I absolutely expect the riding to be a close race and an important race,” he said.

The riding is on the outskirts of Vancouver and Davis said it is becoming more metropolitan all the time, with more people moving into the community. He said he believes people want competent management and believes the Liberals demonstrated that through the pandemic.

“People want more of the same good governance and good stories, we’ve seen the last two years,” he said.

Davis said the close races show a community that is interested in politics and looking for candidates to listen.

“It does mean that there are engaged citizens, people that have ideas, there are needs in this community,” he said. “It’s really about winning over those people that may not know who I am or what I can offer.”

After Port Moody, the closest ridings are in Richmond Hill north of Toronto, where the Liberal Majid Jowhari won with a 212 vote-margin and the riding of Quebec, where Liberal cabinet minister Jean-yves Duclos held on with a 325-vote lead.

Port Moody—coquitlam was among only eight ridings in the country where the race was settled by less than one per cent, according to an analysis of the election results done by the National Post.

A further 20 ridings had margins of victory of less than three per cent and 20 more ridings were settled by less than five per cent of ballots.

Of the 10 closest ridings, nine were won by Liberals in the 2019 election, meaning while they seek their majority in other ridings across the country, they will also have to watch their back to ensure they don’t lose these narrowly won seats.

Of those ten close ridings, two are in B.C., two in Ontario, three in Quebec and one each is up for grabs in Yukon, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Most of the ridings are close, two-way races, either between the Liberals and the Conservatives or the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois.

The Greater Toronto Area, often a battleground for seats between all parties, is largely Liberal now, and even in an election that dealt the Liberals a minority government, there were only a few close races.

Many Liberals in the Toronto suburbs are now sitting with a winning margin of more than 30 per cent, which will make them difficult to beat. There are some close races and several Conservative MPS comfortably holding onto their seats, like Bob Saroya, the MP for Markham-unionville. But Conservative Leona Alleslev won her race in Aurora—oak Ridges—richmond Hill by only two per cent last time.

The Conservative lead in most of Alberta and Saskatchewan, especially in rural communities, is more daunting than the Liberals’ lead in the GTA. Conservative MP Damien Kurek won his riding with 85.49 per cent of the vote, giving him a margin of victory of over 80 per cent, the largest in the country.

The Liberals need 13 more seats than they had in 2019 to reach a majority, but will likely want a buffer to allow for a Liberal speaker and for MPS to step down or resign without causing the Liberals to lose a majority during their term.

The numbers suggest the best place for them to seek these seats will be in places west of Toronto, like Niagara, Windsor, Hamilton and Kitchener. They can also seek to take back Bloc seats in some parts of Quebec, ridings like Shefford and Troisrivières.

B.C. is set to be a major battleground with several three way races, in addition to the race in Port Moody, there was a tight three-way race in Coquitlam-port Coquitlam where the Liberals won, and South Okanagan where the NDP pulled out a victory.

In contrast to the close races in Ontario, B.C. and Quebec, Alberta and Saskatchewan don’t have a single close race.