New rules won’t help Ontarians
Keeping the unvaccinated at bay a misstep
It is easy to criticize Ontario’s cobbled together new plan for an “enhanced vaccination certificate.” It’s short on details and long on implementation time, but the big question is this: How much will it really accomplish?
The vaccinated majority of Ontarians will soon have the nuisance of having to show identification and vaccination proof for everything from entering a restaurant, to going to a gym to attending a sports event. In exchange, they get no measurable additional health benefits.
There is a misguided idea that keeping the unvaccinated at bay is going to help the vaccinated. It’s difficult to see how that will happen. Fully vaccinated people have an exceptionally low risk of becoming seriously ill from COVID-19.
Numbers the government released Wednesday substantiate that. Fully vaccinated people end up in the ICU at the rate of 1.3 per million of population. Only 4.5 per million go to the hospital at all and 16.6 per million contract symptomatic COVID. Those are pretty fantastic odds of avoiding the virus.
By comparison, the unvaccinated have a 42 times greater chance of needing ICU care for COVID, a 27 times higher chance of going to hospital and a seven times higher chance of symptomatic COVID.
The justification for the new vaccination certificate rules was half-hearted and unpersuasive. As the government said in its own presentation, “Ontario’s cautious approach is working,” and “vaccines remain our best defence.” Chief medical officer of health Dr. Kieran Moore even made the point that vaccine numbers have plateaued in recent weeks. Premier Doug Ford pointed out that Ontario’s COVID case rate is only one-third of that in British Columbia and one-fifth of Alberta’s level. He didn’t mention it, but Ontario also has a lower rate than Quebec, which introduced a vaccine passport this week.
It was hardly a compelling argument for action in Ontario. In his press conference, Ford fell back on some familiar standbys. Without the new plan, Ontario risks shutting down the economy, overloading the hospitals and closing the schools, the premier said. It was a point made earlier by Dr. Peter Juni, scientific director of the science advisory table, who said there would be no choice but to close parts of the economy if there were no vaccination certificate program.
Sorry, but what rational person would shut down the economy or close schools when 76 per cent of the eligible population is fully vaccinated, 83 per cent have one shot and the numbers are rising every day? Economic and school shutdowns were a blunt tool when no one was vaccinated. They would make no sense now.
It was pretty clear from Wednesday’s presentation that Ford’s government had no intention of introducing a vaccine certificate plan and it shows. It will be seven weeks until the province comes up with a QR code that can be used to allow scanning of new vaccine documents. Until then, people are expected to show the vaccine paperwork they have now, along with another unspecified piece of ID.
Officials couldn’t even answer a question about what an unvaccinated person legally using a patio is supposed to do when he has to go to the washroom. Perhaps he can ask the server, who doesn’t need to be vaccinated but will be empowered to make sure that customers are.
If Ford was being completely frank, he would have admitted that it was just easier to give into growing pressure from hyper-cautious
PEOPLE WANT TO SEE THE UNVACCINATED GET A KICK IN THE PANTS.
public health officials, political opponents and the significant portion of the public that reflexively endorses any public health measure that offers the illusion of safety.
Let’s face it: People want to see the unvaccinated get a kick in the pants, and here it is in the form of excluding them from any activity that could be remotely described as fun.
The potential upside is that it might make the unvaccinated less likely to make each other sick if they stay home or get vaccinated. That’s far from a sure thing. It’s easy for people to get together and socialize, even with the new rules. If the fear of death from COVID hasn’t persuaded them to get vaccinated, this week’s new restrictions probably won’t either.
One of the many unanswered questions about the new plan is when it will end. Government officials had no answer, either a time line or a target vaccination number. They said they will monitor things through the fall.
The vaccine certificate regime is likely to be with us for a long time to come, given Ontarians’ sensitivity to perceived risk. In the meantime, get used to not leaving home without your papers in order.