PM is on track to lose

Expect Liberals to go nuclear as Canadians show growing appetite for change

There is nothing inevitable about elections — anything can happen, as we have seen over the past three weeks.

But as sure as snow melts in spring, the Liberals are going to lose this election unless they can change its trajectory.

A new poll by Innovative Research shows how the appetite for change has grown in the past six months to 60 per cent on Aug. 21 from 49 per cent in March. That is higher than the 55 per cent in 2019 and on its way to the 62 per cent in 2015. I visited 22 ridings in that election and the conversation with many, many voters started with: “Harper has to go….”

Once that decision has been made by enough people, nobody is listening to you anymore.

The Liberals have to arrest that descent by making voters take a long look at the alternatives and what change actually means. With nearly three weeks to go, the good news for Trudeau is that he still has time.

But the trendlines are ominous. While Innovative Research has the Liberals three points ahead in the horse-race, it also suggests Trudeau’s leadership numbers are trailing Erin O’toole’s — the first time I have seen that in any poll.

The signs of Liberal support disintegrating are coming from all quarters. Advanced Symbolics Inc., an AI market research company that uses data to identify patterns of behaviour, has seen its predictive model shift markedly in the past three weeks. On Aug. 15, it suggested there was a 70 per cent probability of a Liberal majority; that number has shrunk to 2.4 per cent.

The most likely outcome at 54 per cent is a Liberal minority, followed by a 41 per cent prospect of a Conservative minority.

But the situation is fluid. ASI’S proprietary artificial intelligence — Polly — has identified the cost of living, inflation and the job market as the biggest issues concerning voters — all areas where the Conservatives have a polling advantage.

“At this point, we’re left wondering how low can Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party go?” ASI wondered in a note accompanying its newest analysis.

Even the online bookies are getting in on the act of writing Trudeau’s political obituary.

Gambling.com talked of the prospect of “humiliating defeat” in its take, which suggests the Liberal Party’s prospects of victory have fallen from 95 per cent to 61.9 per cent.

In Nova Scotia, where the Liberals hold 10 of the 11 seats, Narrative Research says it has seen a “notable change in public opinion” that has the Conservatives now ahead of the Liberals by three points, with the NDP close behind.

In Quebec, respected pollster Leger issued a new survey that said the Liberals have fallen eight points in the province since the election call.

In most of these forecasts, the Liberals retain a razorthin lead — in Quebec, Leger has the Grits at 33 per cent, compared to 28 per cent for the Bloc and 20 per cent for the Conservatives (up five points).

But the prospects of a Liberal win are diminishing by the day.

What could be done to reverse current trends? Promoting the popular parts of the platform released on Tuesday will be part of the mix.

The Liberals have an edge on the Conservatives when it comes to the environment, the polls indicate.

But when satirists take aim at your plan — as The Beaverton did with its headline: “Liberals announce election platform of things they could easily have done before now” — you have probably passed the point where your promises are taken at face value.

More likely, the Liberals will go nuclear. We are already starting to see Liberal rhetoric add a slightly hysterical edge. Earlier this week, Trudeau said O’toole was not doing enough to condemn the anti-vaccination protesters dogging his campaign. “Erin O’toole is siding with them, instead of with Canadians who did their part and stepped up….shame on you, Erin O’toole,” he said.

In fact, the Conservative Party issued a tweet last Friday evening, before the rally in Bolton had even started, condemning the use of extreme language and O’toole has repeated that stance since.

“Many families, some with young children, attend these events such as these. It should be a positive experience, whatever their affiliation,” the statement said.

O’toole’s position on vaccination is likely to be a recurring theme, even though the Bloc Québécois has questioned the constitutionality of the government’s policy and Green leader Annamie Paul has expressed reservations about how it will apply to people who refuse a shot on medical or religious grounds.

The Conservative leader’s stated intention to allow innovation in health care, while ensuring universal access is maintained, will ensure the “two-tier O’toole” trope is revived.

But it is an event that occurred south of the U.S. border that is likely to provide the Liberals with fresh material. The U.S. Supreme Court’s refusal to block the state of Texas’ new abortion law, which bars abortion after a fetal heartbeat has been detected (usually around the six-week mark) will energize the debate in Canada.

The Liberals have already test-run their attack lines. In the first week of the campaign, Maryam Monsef, who is running for re-election in Peterborough, Ont., said that, while O’toole pretends to be pro-choice, he won’t defend a woman’s right to access abortion and will allow his team to bring forward legislation. “That’s the same position as (former Conservative leader) Andrew Scheer,” she said.

In their platform, the Liberals laid out a series of promises focused on improving access to abortion, including regulating access under the Canada Health Act.

O’toole was asked if he supports such a move at his press conference on Tuesday. He didn’t answer specifically but reiterated his stance as a pro-choice MP who “always defends the right of women to make health decisions for themselves, who always defends the right of access in all parts of the country.”

“I have said that on many occasions and will say it every day to make sure people hear loud and clear that Conservatives are here to stand up for your rights,” he said.

But the news from Texas will raise anxieties about the encroachment on abortion rights in Canada — unease that Trudeau will no doubt try to cultivate.

The danger for him is that the Liberals might encounter their own “barbaric cultural practices hotline” moment, which blew up in the Conservatives’ faces in 2015 and was widely mocked on social media.

If the attacks appear too desperate, they will backfire.

As the late American columnist Charley Reese once pointed out, credibility is like virginity: “It can only be lost once and never recovered.”