What O’toole needs to do to seal an election win.

The federal election is four weeks in, and Erin O’toole’s Conservatives continue to lead Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. The race remains tight, meaning the smallest of slip-ups could turn into the biggest of electoral disasters. While O’toole realizes he’s close to victory, there’s plenty of work still to be done.

Four major polling companies (Angus Reid, EKOS, Ipsos and Nanos) had the Conservatives ahead by two to three percentage points as of Sept. 9. Abacus Data and Leger called it dead even (32-32 and 33-33 per cent support, respectively). Mainstreet Research suggested the Liberals led by 0.9 points.

These numbers are fascinating to read, analyze and, to paraphrase Trudeau’s debating line du jour, “lob” like tomatoes from Vancouver to St. John’s. Opinion polls should never serve as a political soothsayer, however. The data is simply a snapshot of the electorate at a certain point in time. Many Canadians have already decided where to park their votes, but there are clumps of disenchanted individuals and fence-sitters constantly changing their minds on the thin edge of the wedge.

O’toole also knows that winning the popular vote doesn’t necessarily translate into winning an election.

That’s what happened in 2019. O’toole’s predecessor, Andrew Scheer, beat Trudeau by a margin of 34.34-33.12 per cent — and the Liberals still won 157 seats to the Conservatives’ 121. Scheer had reduced Trudeau’s majority government to a minority, but couldn’t knock him off a wobbly perch despite the Snc-lavalin scandal, spats with female Liberal MPS and three instances of wearing blackface.

The situation is different in 2021. Many Canadians are furious about unnecessarily heading to the polls during COVID-19. They’ve grown weary of the Liberals’ tax-and-spend agenda and fiscal insanity. They’ve had their fill of Trudeau’s weak, ineffective leadership. While they don’t know everything about O’toole’s leadership skills, a significant number of voters apparently like what they see and are willing to give him the keys to the kingdom.

O’toole’s political support also seems to be broader than Scheer’s. The Western provinces remain a Conservative stronghold, but opportunities in ridings across Ontario, Atlantic Canada and even Quebec appear to be in play. Unexpected amounts of extra political capital could make all the difference in a razor-thin election.

This doesn’t mean the Conservatives should rest on their laurels and become complacent in the campaign’s remaining days. And they won’t.

Take the three leaders’ debates, for instance. Leaders’ debates rarely move the needle in modern politics. Parties focus heavily on both debate prep and mock debates between leaders and experienced politicos. Almost every single conceivable scenario is scripted out to avoid potential stumbles and pitfalls. Knockout blows are an even rarer species.

Brian Mulroney’s “You had an option, sir” to then-prime minister John Turner in 1984 with respect to Liberal patronage appointments stands the test of time as the shot heard across the country. Any hopes of a repeat of this memorable exchange are few and far between.

Unsurprisingly, no party leader was able to land a knockout in either the French-language debates (Sept. 2 and 8) or the English-language debate (Sept. 9). Yet O’toole was able to accomplish exactly what he had hoped for in all three forums. The Conservative leader introduced himself to Quebec voters in the French-language debates. He discussed pertinent issues, scored points in brief têteà-tête moments with party leaders, and came out relatively unscathed. O’toole’s endorsement by Quebec Premier François Legault, a popular figure in la belle province these days, was an unexpected and welcome gift that could make a difference in several ridings.

O’toole saved his best performance for the English-language debate. He spoke confidently about the economy, Afghanistan, China and the imprisoned Two Michaels, pipelines and climate change. He also peppered Trudeau with solid, focused jabs at the PM’S poor economic strategies, lousy leadership style and divisive behaviour without ever raising his voice or going negative.

With political momentum heading in the right direction, O’toole needs to move in for the kill. The Conservative message must be heavily promoted and enhanced until Sept. 20.

The Dine and Discover Program, which will provide consumers with a 50 per cent rebate on any food purchased for one month, is an important Conservative initiative to help restaurants that have suffered during COVID-19. The month-long GST holiday in December is a bit folksy, much like Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s buck-a-beer program, but it’ll have real populist appeal.

O’toole also needs to focus on two additional areas. Political support in Alberta, for one thing. The Conservatives will do well in this province, but recent demographic shifts and Premier Jason Kenney’s low popularity numbers are worrisome. O’toole needs to keep undecided voters onside by gently noting the similarities and differences between his federal party and the Alberta PC government.

He may also want to try to capture a little piece of the surging support for Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada. Support for small parties can drop off when larger parties on the same side of the political spectrum make all the right moves. A Conservative pitch to middle-of-the-road PPC supporters about fiscal prudence and individual rights and freedoms could help O’toole achieve an additional one to three per cent cushion over the Liberals.

The election may be close, but Justin Trudeau’s political runway is disappearing fast. The campaign’s final stages will be fascinating to watch.