Andrea Horwath’s sinking ship
This Ontario election is Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford’s to lose, but it’s also NDP Leader Andrea Horwath’s to win.
After a strong surge in 2018 to become the province’s official Opposition, the NDP was on a growth trajectory. Throw in Ford’s many pandemic missteps, the decimated Liberals struggling to regain public trust and central campaign issues that historically serve as low-hanging fruit for leftists, and the prospect of an orange wave should’ve been a legitimate possibility.
The operative word there is “should’ve.” We’re now about halfway through the campaign and the NDP’S chances of winning are approximately zilch. It looks like the party may not even retain its official Opposition status. It’s unable to climb above 25 per cent support in the polls, spending most of the time hanging out in the low 20s. Meanwhile, even the Liberals are closing in on 30 per cent, which is still well behind the PCS, who are polling in the mid- to high-30s, but puts the Grits within striking distance of second place.
Squandering a once-in-a-generation opportunity to flip the political script should be unforgivable to NDP supporters and bring about the end of Horwath’s time as leader. If the party has any hope of remaining a genuine contender in future races, it will need a major refresh.
While the Liberals struggle with not just their spotty legacy, but a leader who much of Ontario doesn’t know and doesn’t seem to care to get to know, the NDP is in a different position. Andrea Horwath has led the party for over a decade and is the most experienced leader in the race.
You wouldn’t know that from her debate performance on Monday night, though. The problem was less with what Horwath said than how she said it. Despite her tenure, she still hasn’t mastered the art of channelling voters’ emotions, or even conveying confidence. It’s true that charisma is a rare find in Canadian politics, but Horwath barely manages to look spirited.
It would appear voters noticed: the first post-debate polls show the NDP dropping like a stone, with their support sitting 11 per cent lower than in 2018. It certainly won’t help that Horwath will have to take some time off the campaign trail, after it was announced that she tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday.
Interestingly, the Greens, led by Mike Schreiner (who announced he had tested positive for COVID on Wednesday) are on the upswing after a strong debate performance. The Greens are competing for the same voters as the NDP, offering policies in areas ranging from mental health to clamping down on real estate speculators and increasing the Ontario Disability Support Program that are further to the left of the New Democrats.
One of the standout moments from Monday’s debate was Schreiner repeatedly pointing out how many times Horwath has had to update the NDP’S platform to keep pace with the Greens. While a politician being willing to admit error and recalibrate is an admirable quality, when it happens this frequently, it leaves the impression that the NDP has lost its way as a bastion of left-wing progressivism.
It’s true that Steven Del Duca’s Liberals moved left on some policy areas, producing a platform nearly identical to the NDP’S. However, this shouldn’t have caught Horwath flat-footed as it’s a trend the entire country just watched play out in last fall’s federal election. Yet the NDP failed to prepare for it or make a real effort to lead the way with bigger, bolder ideas that could reinvigorate a burnt-out electorate.
Instead of making a case for first place come election day, the NDP are now stuck trying to convince the public it’s more than the Liberal party’s less successful doppelganger.
Sinking back into its historic third-place spot would be a major loss for Horwath’s NDP and should spell the end of her leadership. Thirteen years is enough time for the public to get to know someone and, in Horwath’s case, it’s pretty clear they’re not interested.