National Post (National Edition)
Notley in the right place at the right time
Ending a dynasty makes NDP look like winners
ECOMMENT
in Ottawa very NDP MP you met on Parliament Hill was crowing about the “strong, stable, majority government” in Alberta.
No wonder they were happy. The odds on Satan skating to work were lower than an NDP provincial win, but it has happened.
Tom Mulcair looked like the town floozy who’d mar- ried the mayor when he emerged to face the media after weekly caucus. “We’ve all got a spring in our step. There are now a couple of really solid NDP strongholds in Canada — Alberta and Quebec,” he said.
A month ago that would have been considered crazy talk.
But will the result late federally?
Pundits should probably shut their pie-holes in the wake of such an upset.
But on the evidence we have at our fingertips, it is unlikely.
I spoke to potential LibNDP switchers who said they are now more confident of staying with the New Democrats.
The toppling of a 44-year Tory dynasty makes the NDP look like winners. Anyone unhappy with Justin Trudeau’s lurch to the right this week, with his middle-class “fairness” plan, will be more confident that Mulcair can
trans- make a breakthrough.
The boilerplate of the NDP as “Liberals in a hurry” — nice people but not practical enough to be trusted with the keys to the treasury — has been exploded by this win.
But there are crucial differences between the federal and provincial campaigns.
For one thing, Stephen Harper will not be under fire from left and right in October. Governments that face a threat from the left or right, tend to move to the margins toward their opponent. In this case, Jim Prentice’s campaign didn’t know whether to tack left or right, and ended up going round in circles.
For another, this campaign was all about anger. Voters were angry at Alison Redford; they were angry at the Wild Rose floor-crossers; they were angry at the budget; they were angry at the early election call; and they were incandescent at a premier who didn’t seem to get that they were upset. Anger kills governments and a great franchise has now reached the end of the line.
By contrast, at the federal level there are few signs that the electorate is winding up to kick the bums out. A poll last week by Abacus Data said only one in two voters think it is definitely time for a change of government, with that 50 per cent split equally between the Liberals and the NDP.
More than half think the economy is in very good or good shape, with only one in three of those who think the economy is in poor shape blaming Ottawa.
This was a uniquely Albertan election.
Old maxims proved their worth once more — Prentice’s Progressive Conservatives grabbed themselves by the lapels and hurled themselves from office. Rachel Notley’s orange revolution succeeded because it was kicking in a rotten door.
Alberta has changed in recent years — 250,000 immigrants arrived in the province in the decade after 2001; another 469,000 came from other parts of Canada between 1996 and 2006. The two big-city mayors — Naheed Nenshi in Calgary and Don Iveson in Edmonton — govern from the left of centre.
Yet, this result can’t be attributed solely to incomers and the ethnic vote.
It’s clear that many Albertans who were born and bred in the province have shifted their political allegiance.
This was a defeat that was years in the making — Albertans had given plenty of signals they were tired of seeing the PCs around, and were shopping for an alternative. Notley was in the right place, at the right time.
The PC Party of Alberta is a toxic organization that would have rusted out anyone’s reputation.
Prentice should probably have taken a pass on the leadership race. Certainly, once in situ, he should have presented himself as the optimist he is, not the “Grim Jim” of his own TV ads.
The leaders’ debate offered Notley the perfect platform to offer a fresh, upbeat view of the future that contrasted with the austerity message coming from Prentice.
The essence of leadership in election campaigns is to make people feel good, but it doesn’t look like there was much joy coming from the PC camp.
I’ve covered Prentice for more than a decade and have the utmost respect for his abilities as a public administrator. He understands the shifting geopolitical forces at play in the modern world. In
Now up to her to ensure she doesn’t go the way of Bob Rae
particular, he offers expertise in the realms of energy, pipelines and aboriginal politics.
But he is more comfortable around the cabinet or boardroom table than he is in Tim Hortons. He is not a natural when it comes to the political clasp or holding eye contact.
More than that, he is clearly not the tactician that many of us thought him to be.
Most successful leaders know issues in their guts, not in their heads.
Prentice may not have been able to control the winds of global oil prices, or even the malign legacy of previous regimes, but he could have trimmed his sails to better handle the conditions. Yet, he made mistake after mistake, not least telling the affable female leader of the NDP that “math is difficult.”
All his political ambitions have foundered on the rocks in inglorious fashion. He deserved better.
It will now be up to Notley to ensure that history does not repeat itself and Alberta’s flirtation with the NDP does not go the way of Bob Rae’s Ontario government. More importantly, she must ensure that the Alberta economy does not slip into recession.
New Democrats close to Rae admit they were blown away by how little they knew about the workings of government. Rae himself said he felt like the guy going through the frat house after the Saturday night party, pouring black coffee for everyone.
Notley’s challenge is to pull together an effective ministry from her 50 rookie caucus and reassure the markets that Alberta is still open for business.
The energy index on the TSX was down 2.5 per cent, on fears about the NDP’s promised royalty review and increased corporate taxes.
The first lesson learned by every new leader is that every word spoken weighs a ton.
Her inaugural press conference suggested she gets that she has a tough road ahead. She tried to reassure the oil sector that “things will be A-OK in Alberta.”
If she takes things slowly, investors will get used to the idea of a strong, stable, majority NDP government in Alberta.
The rest of us will seek solace in Lincoln’s words about “patient confidence in the ultimate justice of the people.”