‘No longer live in a two-party universe’

Federal Tories see tough lessons to learn from loss

O T T AWA • Can the New Democrats do federally what they just did provincially?

Conservative MPs, shocked by Rachel Notley’s stunning majority NDP government in Alberta, say there are hard lessons to be learned from the results — including that the New Democrats will likely be a much stronger force in that province in the fall federal election.

As federal New Democrats sang and danced in their Wednesday caucus meeting, the mood in the Conservative meeting was dark.

“It was more like a morgue,” said Justice Minister Peter MacKay. “Someone said it was like — it’s Alberta-stan now.”

New Democrat MPs believe the provincial party’s victory in Alberta signals a potential breakthrough nationally. The NDP can point to orange waves in Quebec on the federal scene and Wild Rose Country provincially.

“It bodes really well for the NDP across the country,” a beaming NDP Leader Tom Mulcair told reporters.

People often vote differently in provincial elections than in federal ones. As well, Alberta voters were seen, to some degree, to be punishing Jim Prentice’s Progressive Conservatives even as they were embracing the NDP.

Still, some Alberta Conservative MPs agreed that the NDP’s meteoric rise in their province shows the New Democrats will be a force in Alberta in the fall federal election campaign.

Calgary East Tory MP Deepak Obhrai said he was “pretty stunned, pretty surprised” with the results. His entire area went NDP at the provincial level.

“We can expect the NDP to mount a stronger campaign (federally). Up to now, we were seeing in Calgary the Liberals trying to mount a strong campaign, and I can now say the NDP will see this as a ground in which they can make gains,” Obhrai said. “There is quite a big lesson here for us.”

The federal and provincial Conservative parties are very different, he noted, but they generally stay in contact and their political base is mostly the same.

Obhrai expects the federal Tory caucus and Alberta Conservative MPs to conduct a post-mortem to determine what they should take from the result to “see what came out.

“We’ll go back to our constituencies, analyze it, and prudence says we should be prepared.”

Potentially promising for the NDP, and possibly worrisome for the Conservatives, is that the premier they tossed out was a longtime top lieutenant to Prime Minister Stephen Harper — tying the loser to their own federal leader.

Conservative MP Jim Eglinski, who represents the traditionally very conservative northwest Alberta riding of Yellowhead, saw local PC MLAs — including the finance minister — lose their seats.

“It’s definitely the public speaking up to us that they wanted change,” Eglinski said.

“We’re going to have to be working that much more harder than the past. It’s a tough situation. I don’t believe the thoughts are in the Alberta people federally the way they were provincially … but we also have to be very careful.”

Mulcair and fellow jubilant New Democrat MPs celebrated the results at their weekly caucus meeting and allowed media in to record it.

“They said the NDP would never break through in Quebec. They said that the NDP could never win in Alberta. Canadians want change. Change is with the NDP,” Mulcair said to roars of approval from his caucus and chants of “NDP! NDP! NDP!”

The stakes are enormous for Mulcair and the official Opposition, who need a boost in support — especially in Ontario — if they are to form government. The party has been a distant third place in repeated national opinion polls with less than six months to election day.

Craig Scott, the New Democrat MP in Toronto-Danforth, said he thinks the NDP’s popularity in Quebec and Alberta could translate into new federal seats in all regions, including Greater Toronto.

“It frees up people’s imaginations. They know we no longer live in a two-party universe federally,” Scott said.

Winnipeg NDP MP Pat Martin said the “real lesson” for the NDP is that “when you unite the progressive vote, anything is possible.”

In Edmonton, Notley seemed to keep a distance between her party and Mulcair’s NDP, stressing she’ll do what’s best for Alberta.

“I have a great deal of respect for Tom Mulcair. I think he’s a great national leader, but my job is going to be to focus on being the premier of Alberta and representing the interests of Albertans on the national stage,” Notley said.

“Part of that means protecting our economy and building more jobs, because that’s fundamental to Alberta’s strength.”

Liberal Leader Ju s t i n Trudeau, whose provincial counterparts fared poorly, cast the Alberta election results as “the desire for change” in the province and across the country. Notley put forward a responsible plan and was rewarded for her positive campaign, he said.

A New Democrat surge in Alberta federally could pose problems for Trudeau if there’s a sharp split in the progressive vote.

“It’s a message of not being taken for granted, that people need to earn their vote every time, and historical patterns don’t necessarily drive voter behaviour now,” Trudeau said.

Not all Alberta Conservative MPs read gloom and doom into the results. Leon Benoit, who represents a rural northern riding, said the results were more an effort to punish the Alberta Progressive Conservatives.

“Thomas Mulcair is no Rachel Notley. Rachel Notley certainly has a way of appealing very well in her speaking,” Benoit said. “Thomas Mulcair, I don’t think, is quite like that.”

It’s a message of not being taken for granted