National Post (National Edition)
Arkansas leaning toward GOP, Trump
OBAMA BACKLASH Democrats fall from grace in Bill Clinton state
I DON’T KNOW A LOT ABOUT HIS POLICIES, BUT (BORDER PATROL IS ONE) OF MY FAVOURITES.
FAYETTEVILLE, ARK .• On a sticky afternoon in midSeptember, in a strip mall on the fringes of this city of 80,000, the regional Republican headquarters is sold out of Trump signs.
A lanky man with a widebrimmed cowboy hat is disappointed with the news. He had made the trip here just for a sign. Dillon Allwine, the 23-year-old field director of the northwest Arkansas Republican party, who had arrived minutes before in a Mercedes-Benz, assured him more would be in soon.
“How much are they?” the man asked.
“A dollar each,” Allwine said.
“In that case I might get two. Vote Trump!” the man declared and then left.
Arkansas will make for a fascinating battleground in one of the most riveting U.S. elections in modern times.
It is, after all, Bill Clinton’s home state and the former president won here by a wide margin in the 1990s. This time around is a much different story.
The Democrats’ fall from grace in Arkansas is a long and complicated affair. During the 2010 U.S. midterms, the party lost all four House seats and John Boozman was elected the first Republican Senator in Arkansas in more than 130 years. While the state commemorates Clinton’s legacy through buildings and museums in his name, Arkansas is now solidly red.
“I love Bill,” Allwine said in the Republican’s office’s front room. “But you don’t want to know what I think of Hillary.”
Sitting behind his laptop, Allwine pulls up the latest polling numbers and talks his new favourite man: Donald Trump. Allwine is “big on border patrol,” and thinks Trump will secure the country better than Hillary Clinton.
“I don’t know a lot about his policies,” he said, “but that’s one of my favourites.”
Indeed, it is Trump’s policies that have drawn so many in this state to him. Like Allwine, many think the Affordable Care Act is a waste of money. Trump wants to repeal the socalled Obamacare, and his health care mandate states that no one should be required to buy insurance unless they want to.
“I know a lot of other people who don’t have jobs, and they ’re getting free health care,” Allwine said. “It’s a bust.”
In some ways, the long Democratic hold on Arkansas is surprising. Andrew Dowdle, a political-science professor at the University of Arkansas, said the state was destined to change.
“If the Republican party was the moon, and the Democratic party was the sun — even 10 years ago — it’s the complete opposite now,” Dowdle said. “The Republican party has the significant advantage statewide.”
Dowdle explained that the suburbs surrounding Little Rock and northwest Arkansas — where the headquarters of multinational giant Walmart are based — have doubled in size in the last 25 years. Most of the people who moved to the area are middle to upper class and overwhelmingly Republican.
“Even though th e r e’s some nostalgia, the Clintons left over 25 years ago,” said Dowdle. “Many of these new voters have no real connection (to them).”
And a big driving force for the Republican party in Arkansas is the antagonism against President Barack Obama by the primarily white, working-class residents here. In 2008, Republican John McCain dominated the state with 58 per cent of voters; Obama sat at 38 per cent. In 2012, Obama lost Arkansas by 24 points.
“The Republicans became more of a party of the white, working class,” Dowdle said. “There’s still kind of a reflexive dislike of Obamacare here ... Immigration is another issue.
“Looking at Mr. Trump, this is really a state that is almost perfectly designed for him.”
Driving on the outskirts of Fayetteville, it’s not uncommon to see Confederate flags hanging off trucks, and Trump signs littered across lawns.
But there are a few counties left that are still holding onto the state’s Democratic roots.
Near the University of Arkansas, in Washington County, are enclaves of academics and students that trend heavily Democrat, as well as what Dowdle calls the “never Trumpers” — upper-middle class, suburban women. The county is also home to Springdale, a town about 20 minutes outside of Fayetteville, where a third of the population is Hispanic.
“You’re likely to see some Hispanic opposition in the polls,” he said. “But I think that ’s going to get submerged by what happens in the rest of the state.”
At the Clinton House Museum, on Clinton Drive in Fayetteville, the former house of Bill and Hillary is mostly preserved in its original state. On the selfguided tour one can find life-size cut-outs of the Clintons and, in the pristine black-and-white bathroom, upon a shelf, sits an old silver-framed photo of Bill and Hillary, gazing into each other’s eyes. They look happy, carefree, at peace — a memento of another time.