National Post (National Edition)
PRIME MINISTER’S TIME IN CUBA SHOWS TIES ARE STRONG — EVEN WITHOUT FIDEL.
RELATIONSHIP REMAINS EVEN WITHOUT FIDEL CASTRO IN CHARGE
Canada and Cuba are on a good footing to enhance an already-good relationship with a visit to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau this week, say experts, despite uncertainty around the policy of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump.
Trudeau’s sunny liberalism stands in stark contrast to Trump’s protectionist populism. But trying to sell “good governance” to the communist regime is naive, say some — especially since at least a few Cubans are pointing to Trump’s election as a failure of democracy.
Canada and Cuba have had unbroken diplomatic relations for 71 years. In a background briefing ahead of the trip, Canadian officials called it a “long and storied friendship.”
Trudeau couldn’t arrange a visit with the 90-year-old Fidel Castro, who led the Cuban communist revolution and with whom his father Pierre Trudeau shared mutual admiration. Castro’s health is precarious, though he held a successful visit with the president of Vietnam on Tuesday.
Pierre Trudeau visited Castro in 1976 as prime minister — the first member of NATO to do so — and again several times after leaving politics. Castro attended Trudeau’s funeral in 2000, two years after he and Jean Chrétien inaugurated the Havana airport’s international terminal together.
The two countries have important trade and tourism ties. Cuba is Canada’s biggest market for exports in Latin America and the Caribbean. About 1.3 million Canadians visited last year.
John Kirk at Dalhousie University said the visit is symbolic. Cubans hold major respect for Canadians, and there’s much more nuance to the relationship than just tourism or economics — droves participate in an annual Terry Fox run, for example, while there are myriad partnerships between universities in the two countries.
The Caribbean island will inevitably face big repercussions from the policies of the giant 150 kilometres off its coast.
It is unclear whether Trump will reverse a decision by President Barack Obama to normalize relations with Cuba, opening a U.S. embassy and allowing flights though a full economic embargo remains in effect.
He was accused of violating the embargo with his own business dealings, but waffled during the campaign, saying he supported Obama’s move and later threatening to reverse it unless unspecified “demands” are met.
If Trump reverses Obama’s policies, the immediate implications are that hotel prices will go back down and Canadian tourists and businesses will have an easier time, Kirk said. If Trump keeps going toward lifting the embargo, “then Canadians will have to compete along with Americans, who have more money and more clout.”
Trudeau told students in Havana Wednesday he disagrees with the U.S. approach to Cuba but their election results “won’t change” the Canadian-Cuban relationship.
Former ambassador to Cuba Mark Entwistle, now a partner at Acasta Capital, agreed Canada’s approach won’t change and said the visit could offer “a shot of adrenalin.”
But the idea that Canada has “privileged access” or extra leverage with Cubans is a “myth,” Entwistle said in an email from Havana — Canada has to compete with other countries, including those that have recently organized highlevel visits to Havana: France, Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, China and Vietnam, to name a few.
Officials said before Trudeau’s visit he would emphasize governance, inclusiveness and diversity. Cuba is accused of limiting freedoms and perpetrating human rights abuses to maintain its regime. That’s a normal part of talks between the two countries, said Entwistle.
Arch Ritter, an economics professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, said though Canada should stay the course on economic matters, it’s “naive” to think it can be a political influencer. “In terms of the soft sell toward political pluralism, we failed completely as everybody else has failed,” he said.
WE FAILED COMPLETELY AS EVERYBODY ELSE HAS FAILED.