A moment to be seized in Cuba

The danger that communism once represented to the western world has decreased substantially. Only a few states continue to formally identify with communist doctrine, in theory, if not practice. China, Cuba, North Korea and Vietnam hold spots on the list, though many would argue North Korea is in reality a rogue state with a totalitarian monarchy interested only in preserving the power of the Kim clan. In 2009 it dropped communism from its constitution in favour of military leadership and the predominance of the Kims.

Within this rump grouping, China is clearly the most powerful and dangerous. Cuba, it could be argued, is the least so. Though it continues to be dominated by the Castro brothers, it lacks both the military and economic capabilities that make China a force to be reckoned with. It has also begun to taste the benefits that come from a more open economy and less rigid marketplace.

This is the context of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s visit, which began Tuesday with his arrival in Havana. President Raul Castro was quick to dampen any hope that dramatic changes were afoot. “Even though I have said we have to move slowly, you can go too fast. I have said slowly, but steady,” he noted at a welcoming ceremony.

He has a point. The fall of the Soviet state in Russia was followed by the rise of the corrupt oligarchy now run by President Vladimir Putin. Dumping one ideology can be dangerous if there is no better alternative ready to replace it. Nonetheless, Cuba is a country with which Canada has good relations and advantageous ties, and an opportunity to influence positive change while benefiting from broader commercial ties.

Cuba is not the danger to peace it once was. It no longer has the financial support of a powerful friend in Moscow with money to spend and nuclear warheads to point at the U.S. coastline. Though Putin recently wrote off $32 billion in debt dating to the Soviet years, it was mainly an acknowledgment that Cuba lacks the ability to pay. Most Cuban workers take home about $20 a month, and fewer than five per cent have access to the Internet. Despite the easing of tensions with Washington, thousands of Cubans still risk the dangerous sea crossing to the U.S. every year; thousands more are allowed to emigrate via a lottery system.

Cuba represents a real opportunity for Canadian interests. Raul Castro has been more open to reform than his older brother, Fidel. While insisting Cuba will remain strictly socialist, he has allowed the adoption of market-based reforms that enable Cubans to own cellphones, buy and sell property, expand farms and the ability to sell produce, and earn extra money through second jobs with income linked to productivity. They can even be paid bonuses. The changes remain halting and encumbered by choking state bureaucracy, but even that is under scrutiny: Castro’s government has admitted almost two million of its state workers aren’t needed.

Although U.S. President Barack Obama began dismantling the barriers between Havana and Washington, President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to reverse the process. That