U.S. bromance was fun while it lasted

When accounts are written on Justin Trudeau’s years as prime minister, Sunday’s meeting in Peru may prove to be a pivotal moment.

The prime minister had an opportunity to meet once again with his new friend and fellow “progressive,” President Barack Obama. They discussed shared concerns, including climate change and refugees. Trudeau raised, once again, Canada’s vexation over the seemingly never-ending friction on softwood lumber, while Obama professed to believe that relations between the U.S. and Canada would survive any dangers represented by the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.

“One thing that I think should be emphasized is that through Conservative governments, Liberal governments, Democratic or Republican governments, the relationship between the United States and Canada is one of the most important constants in the world and I have no doubt that that will continue,” Obama said.

Optimistic words. But while Obama leaves office for a presumably prosperous career of speech-giving and memoir-writing, Trudeau’s challenge is just beginning. The much-celebrated bromance between the president and prime minister was pleasant while it lasted, but may not survive the transition to a Trump administration with quite the same warmth.

Trudeau must now demonstrate he can protect Canada’s interests from a White House and Congress whose priorities lie less in being good friends and neighbours, and more in promoting U.S. gains on a variety of fronts. In that regard, Sunday’s setting was apt, as trade is likely to be an intense area of potential conflict. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, the focus of the Peru get-together, may be an early victim of the new situation. Its chances looked bleak no matter who won the U.S. election; with Trump’s victory there is a good chance it has no future at all.

The North American Free Trade Agreement, which has fuelled jobs and growth in both countries for two decades, also has an uncertain future, as Trump says he will demand changes despite the obvious benefits it has provided for all three signatories.

Dealing with the U.S. is never easy. Much has been made of the quick friendship struck between Trudeau and Obama, yet it wasn’t enough to stop Obama from vetoing the Keystone XL pipeline purely for domestic political reasons. Nor has it impeded U.S. lumber interests from their continuing attempts to put new barriers in the way of Canadian lumber exports. Ironically, Keystone’s prospects now appear much brighter; Trump sees the pipeline as a no-brainer, as did prime minister Stephen Harper, and the resistance to it as a reflection of environmentalist religious fervour rather than any practical realities. It may succeed under strained relations where it previously faltered under friendly ties.

Dealing with Trump will test Trudeau in a way he has yet to experience. His election was warmly greeted in many countries, but the last-minute issues that threatened to sink the Canada-European Union trade pact, and the obvious frustrations that caused in Ottawa, showed that Canada can’t expect special treatment even from the closest of allies, and that local interests always take precedence over cross-border needs when domestic politics is at stake.

If Trump prides himself on anything, it is his “dealmaking” skills. He was elected to change how Washington operates, and has made many promises to that effect. In his early decisions as president-elect he has shown an ability to be both ruthless and unpredictable, abruptly ousting New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie from his inner circle while giving serious consideration to Mitt Romney, a bitter critic during the presidential campaign, as secretary of state.

He has demonstrated how easily a U.S. president can change the equation on international fronts, rendering the Paris accord on climate change all but redundant by refusing to have anything to do with it. About 20 per cent of the emissions reductions were to come from the U.S.; by withholding co-operation Washington largely nullifies the efforts — limited as they were in many cases — of the countries that remain.

Canada has a tenth of the U.S. population, and a fraction of its clout. Winning victories in Washington has always consisted of presenting strong arguments, backed by solid reasoning, and hoping it somehow survives the cutthroat nature of U.S. domestic politics. Trudeau has enjoyed a year of positive ratings among Canadians, who were largely disposed to give him the benefit of the doubt. His task is about to grow much tougher; the next time he seeks election, judgment will be based on how he handles it.