5 THINGS ABOUT KILLING OF RUSSIAN ENVOY

1 RUSSIAN HACKERS TARGET TURKEY

Russia has a penchant for causing domestic political trouble in other countries through conveniently timed cyber hacks (just ask the United States). The Turkish government has been on the receiving end of such hacks before; on Dec. 7, WikiLeaks released over 57,000 emails of Berat Albayrak, Turkey’s minister of energy and natural resources and also President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law.

2 A FRAGILE RELATIONSHIP

The already fragile relationship between Russia and Turkey could fall apart, leading to renewed economic pressure on Turkey. This is what happened after November, 2015, when Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian bomber on the border of Syria. In response, Russia embargoed many Turkish goods, and Turkish exports to Russia fell US$737 million. The situation did not improve until Erdogan apologized in June.

3 EXCUSE FOR REPRESSION

The assassination is used as an excuse for further repression in both Turkey and Russia. Erdogan detained thousands after the failed coup against his government this July. Putin came to power in part by cracking down in Chechnya. Whatever else, the assassination does not bode well for Russian or Turkish civil society.

4 ALEPPO CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES

Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides of the Syrian civil war, but both helped broker the latest ceasefire that allowed rebels and civilians to leave Aleppo. The assassination could cause the ceasefire to collapse anew, or lead to renewed fighting elsewhere in Syria.

5 RUSSIA PLAYS KURDISH CARD

Turkey is a NATO member, making it unlikely Russia would consider war with Turkey itself. Karlov is probably not, in other words, another Archduke Franz Ferdinand. But Russia could use its ties with disaffected Kurds in Turkey, including possible support for Kurdish militants, spurring more Kurdish attacks.