FINDING COMMON GROUND

CANADA-U.S. TRADE RELIES ON WHETHER TRUMP AND TRUDEAU CAN COME TOGETHER. WHY THEY MAY HAVE MORE IN COMMON THAN MOST THINK

Donald Trump has spooked a lot of Canadians with his tough talk on trade.

The president-elect’s attacks during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign were directed toward Mexico and China, and not his country’s largest bilateral trading partner, Canada, yet they could still present a challenge for Canadian business if he acts on them.

Roughly $2 billion worth of goods and services cross the Canada-U.S. border each day. But the statistics might not matter to Trump. During the election campaign, he demonstrated that he relies more on gut instinct than facts and figures. That tendency might reveal the best way to respond to the challenge.

Michael Kergin, who served as Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2000 to 2005, said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should ensure he has a strong, personal relationship with the incoming president.

Trump and Trudeau may orbit different suns politically, but they share a lot of common ground as politicians. Pundits wrote them both off as dilettantes not long before each won a surprising victory. Neither is a policy wonk, and both are adept at the theatrics of public life.

Both also come from privileged backgrounds, yet attract broad support from the less well-to-do. Trudeau understands the power of the selfie photo, while Trump constantly outfoxes the mainstream media with his tweets. See TRADE on FP8

“Probably the best thing Trudeau can do is to try to establish a personal link with him,” Kergin said. “I think Trump is impressed by people who are celebrities. And obviously Trudeau is, for the time being, anyway, quite a new global celebrity.”

This is not a trite observation. It’s always been the case that Canada-U.S. relations do better when Canada’s prime minister gets along with the U.S. president. Bureaucrats take notice when their bosses are buddies. It inspires them to address files more quickly.

Kergin is well-suited to make the point. He works as a strategic adviser in international affairs in the Ottawa office of law firm Bennett Jones LLP. Prior to that, he had a long career in the Canadian foreign service.

Most of his diplomatic work focused on security issues, such as arms control and NATO. Yet his stint as ambassador to the U.S. left him with expert knowledge of cross-border trade issues.

After leaving government service, among other things, Kergin has represented Ontario in Canada-U.S. softwood lumber negotiations and advised the government of Ontario on the Windsor-Detroit bridge.

Leading into the U.S. election, Canadian diplomats had a hard time getting their heads around the Trump phenomenon. Briefing notes obtained by Canadian Press through access to information show that Canada’s U.S.-based diplomats wrestled to pin down Trump’s policy positions. One note described Trump’s views on foreign policy as “contradictory, often uninformed and unpredictable.”

Such uncertainty makes it even more imperative for Trudeau to forge a strong personal relationship with Trump, Kergin said.

“He is someone who seems to make judgments on gut instinct,” he said. “If he’s convinced by an argument that he’s heard from the prime minister, that will inform his thinking.”

NAFTA is clearly one big issue that will need to be addressed since Trump during his campaign promised to rip it up, but it isn’t the only Canada-U.S. trade issue that will need to be discussed.

A temporary Canada-U.S. trade truce on softwood lumber expired more than a year ago. That means one of the first and most difficult trade files to vex Canada-U.S. relations will be on the table just as Trump and Trudeau are getting to know one another.

“It’ll be a tough one, there’s no question about it. And it will have its own pyrotechnics,” Kergin said.

There are other disputes, too. According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, the U.S. is currently concerned with more than a dozen Canadian trade issues and policies.

Trudeau, Kergin said, is a “user friendly sort of guy” who may be well suited for the challenge of making Canada’s case to Trump on these and other issues.

“The PM’s got a lot going for him in terms of personal instincts,” he said. “He might actually get along quite well with Trump.”